ADP Number Confirms Relentless Erosion In US Manufacturing Base

The October ADP Private Payrolls report, which is the butt of all jokes when it comes to accurate NFP predictive ability, has come and gone, printing at 110K on expectations of 100K, and down from a revised 116K in September. For those who actually care about the quality of jobs, services added 114K of the total 110K jobs, while good-producing jobs subtracted 4K, and manufacturing jobs as a subset declined by 8K. And then they complain that China is making everything in the world...

From the report: "Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that the recent trend in private employment remains moderate, and probably is below a pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate. This rate of moderate job creation reflects the sluggish pace of GDP growth exhibited earlier this year. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 114,000 in October. Although down a bit from an increase of 122,000 in September, this increase marks more than 20 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector declined 4,000 in October, while manufacturing employment declined by 8,000." Somehow growth came from small and medium businesses, while large payrolls declined: "Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 58,000 in October, down from the 64,000 jobs created among small businesses last month. Employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 53,000, and employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—declined 1,000." As for the fulcrum construction and financial sevices jobs, "Employment in the construction industry fell 1,000 in October, bringing the total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 to 2,131,000. Employment in the financial services sector rose a scant 1,000 in October."

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