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Monday, July 27, 2009

Is The Recession Over?

Is the recession over? Not bloody likely. First of all, calling the current economic contraction a recession is like calling Bubonic Plague a slight illness. We are clearly in the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression. Secondly, the official organization that dates recessions -- the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- defines the current recession based primarily on job losses -- not two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

And by that measure the NBER judged that the recession began in December 2007. With about 6.5 million jobs lost since then and another 546,000 initial jobless claims in the most recent July week for which statistics are available, it is difficult to see how anyone could make the claim that the recession is over. To be fair, that number is down from previous months but it still suggests a substantial number of lost jobs.

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3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Its a longway from over. George and his crew really got us in deep.

Anonymous said...

The CBO has a report that says we will not have any new net job gains for 5 years. Inflation is coming as we keep printing money and trying to pass laws to hurt our standing in the world and ability to turn a profit in order to keep or gain jobs for people. our government is keeping us from turning this economy around, just like the great depression. Our government is going to coninute prolonging this until the people say enough is enough and take back our government and country.

Anonymous said...

Were all screwed. Theres no work here on the shore. All I can say is everyone I know is going broke and cant stop it.