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TO: Andy Harris for Congress
FR: Arthur Finkelstein
RE: Polling Results, Key Findings
DATE: July 17, 2008
Key Findings
• Andy Harris continues to grow his lead over Frank Kratovil among voters in MD-01. Recent Polling shows total Harris support at 44.3% and total Kratovil support
at 28.3%, giving Harris a 16 point lead in the Congressional race. Furthermore, Harris is closing in on the 51% mark already - midway through July.
Q2. - IF THE ELECTION FOR US CONGRESS WERE HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE ANDY HARRIS, THE REPUBLICAN, AND FRANK KRATOVIL THE DEMOCRAT, FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE?
- 300 Total
- 133 44.3 COMBO HARRIS
- 120 40.0 Vote Harris
- 13 4.3 Lean Harris
- 85 28.3 COMBO KRATOVIL
- 77 25.7 Vote Kratovil
- 8 2.7 Lean Kratovil
- 82 27.3 FIRM UNDECIDED
• Andy Harris continues to grow in favorablility among all voters in Maryland’s 1st
Congressional District. Harris’ Favorables have increased to 37.3%.
• Also, important to note, Harris has gained an almost 3 to 1 advantage
in Favorable opinions to Unfavorables among voters.
Q13. - PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON OR GROUP, JUST SAY SO.
"ANDY HARRIS"
- 300 Total
- 112 37.3 FAVORABLE
- 35 11.7 UNFAVORABLE
- 114 38.0 NO OPINION
- 39 13.0 NEVER HEARD OF
• Maryland voters continue to show an unfavorable opinion of Frank Kratovil with an upside down Unfavorable opinion expressed over a Favorable one. Kratovil’s
Unfavorable rating was 14.3%, while his Favorable was at 13.7%.
• Furthermore, 24% of MD-01 voters still have never heard of Kratovil – just shy of double that view him Favorably and twice as much as of voters that never heard
of Harris.
Q14. - PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON OR GROUP, JUST SAY SO.
"FRANK KRATOVIL"
- 300 Total
- 41 13.7 FAVORABLE
- 43 14.3 UNFAVORABLE
- 144 48.0 NO OPINION
- 72 24.0 NEVER HEARD OF
Conclusion
• Andy Harris’ commitment to Maryland families by: bringing economic accountability back to Washington; bringing energy costs down; and providing more affordable,
accessible healthcare is resonating strongly with Maryland’s first Congressional
District Voters.
• Frank Kratovil’s liberal positions and close ties to Gov. O’Malley are
viewed negatively among Maryland voters. Indicating, Kratovil’s positions appear out of sync with Maryland voters, who have a more unfavorable than favorable opinion of Kratovil.
Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates conducted a telephone survey of registered voters in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District on Tuesday, July 15th, 2008. With a sample size of 300 the margin of error is + 5.65 at the 95% confidence level.
7 comments:
Arthur J. Finklestein is a hardcore conservative operative. All I had to do was read the summary statements at the end of the poll results to know that I might find more reliable numbers elsewhere. And that's not a republican vs. democrat thing-- that's a matter of getting good, solid facts without any campaign spin.
I think the numbers pretty much say it all...bye bye Frankie!
Sample size is VERY small and the margin of error is CRAZY large... It should be less than 3% to be taken seriousley as a study....
you people clearly don't understand polls. statistically speaking, 1,001 people are a scientific study for the UNITED STATES! So 300 for the Eastern Shore is about right. Most polls conducted on the Shore only use about that many. And 5% is not a bad margin of error, despite what Frankie-Boys people say.
When I read the conclusions, I knew this was full of crap.
Legitimate polls and studies do not include statements like "voters prefer candidate X conservative family stances" and "the liberal tendencies of candidate Y."
That's pure propaganda talk.
Sorry. I'm technically still an undecided, but this just isn't working for me. I couldn't give a rat's behind what polls say. I want to know where candidates stand on issues, and I'll vote either party or independent depending on the issues, not the ideology. The more I hear of the ideology, the more turned off I get.
11:44, you couldn't be more correct.
Thanks for posting.
That honey interviewing Andy is HOT!
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