Reality Check: The Facts vs. the Left's Top Two Lies About Tax Reform

In the interest of intellectual honesty and transparency, let's begin with a few important concessions to skeptics of the GOP tax reform bill: First, not every single American would be a winner under the plan. A small percentage of US taxpayers would see a tax increase (disproportionately, these would be higher-income itemizers from high-tax states), and a number of deductions that help certain people with heavy medical expenses and student loan debt would be eliminated (proponents say much or all of the resulting blow would be mitigated by lower rates and a doubled standard deduction). Second, among the "losers" would be a small percentage of middle class families and filers. Third, even using a "dynamic" score of the legislation -- which takes into account the growth-stimulating effects of tax cuts and simplification -- it is likely that the plan would add hundreds of billions to cumulative federal deficits over the next decade. The debt matters. Fourth, some Republicans believe the plan is too tilted toward corporate tax reductions (the current US statuary and effective rates are internationally uncompetitive), arguing that a small portion of those planned cuts should be redirected to families with children.

There is partisan retort to each of those first three criticisms, of course: The Democratic Party lied to the American people by promising a no-lose panacea under Obamacare, which ended up harming more people than it helped, while gut-punching millions of middle class families with skyrocketing Obamacare costs and taxes. And Obama's party, now feigning suddenly concern about deficits, cheered loudly as he nearly doubled the national debt in the span of just eight years. These points highlight Democrats' hypocrisy and opportunism; they do not, however, invalidate the concerns listed above, on the merits. The fundamental question as Senators contemplate their chamber's legislation is whether the drawbacks of the bill outweigh its benefits. I believe they do not, but in order to at least reach a point of forming rational opinions, it's imperative that we expose and correct dishonest myths about the effects of tax reform. These are the two biggest falsehoods being propagated by the Left:

(1) The GOP tax reform proposals do not help the middle class. This is flat-out wrong, period. As we've explored in great detail, with links to actual data, the vast majority of all taxpayers would receive a tax cut under the Republican plan, including roughly 75 percent of middle income households (others would see no change, and a small fraction would see an increase). This is especially true for the massive majority of middle class filers who take the standard deduction, which is set to roughly increase twofold under the legislation. As we wrote earlier, even the New York Times' analysis of the bill -- evidently unread by the paper's editorial board -- cannot escape the empirical fact that a lopsided supermajority of middle class earners stand to benefit from tax relief. I've also cited two nonpartisan analyses of the House-passed bill that determined it would lower taxes and increase incomes, on average, across every income group in America (see the above links). In doing so, I've highlighted the work of the nonpartisan Tax Foundation to illustrate these benefits, which some liberals have dismissed because of that organization's reputation for leaning to the right. For the purposes of this argument, therefore, let's look at findings from the ideologically liberal Tax Policy Center (TPC). It found that the House-passed legislation would reduce average tax bills across all five income groups from 2019 to 2027 (the end of the budget window). How about the Senate bill?

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