Florida’s early voting numbers show that Donald Trump is on track to win the state if he can gather support from half of the state’s “No Party Affiliated” voters by November 8.
The calculation assumes that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton each keep 87 percent of their partisan supporters in Florida, gain 4 percent or 5 percent from the other party, and lose 8 percent or 9 percent to third-party candidates. Those numbers match the data provided in a recent TIPP poll for Investors Business Daily.
Based on TIPP’s data, and the 4 million early votes cast by Monday, Trump will get 45.4 percent of the state’s vote — and the November win — if the NPA vote splits 48 percent for Trump, 33 percent for Hillary Clinton, and 19 percent for third parties, including Jill Stein of the Green Party.
That scenario would leave Clinton with 42.1 percent of the statewide vote, and third-party candidates would get 12.5 percent of the statewide votes.