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Monday, November 28, 2016

Keep It Simple, Stupid...Why Oil & Commodity Demand Is Set To Fall Indefinitely

Following James Carville's sage advice, I will attempt to explain to president-elect Trump, Fed-head Yellen, and the average Americanwhy global oil, commodity, and consumer demand is set to collapse using the Carvillian principle..."keep it simple stupid".

The combined 35 OECD wealthy nations (list HERE) plus China, Russia, and Brazil represent 70% of global oil consumption while they represent about 40% of global population (chart below). In comparison, Africa and India (combined) make up 8% of oil consumption despite being 33% of global population (& nearly 100% of all present and future net population growth).

From 2015 to 2040, the EIA anticipates global oil consumption to increase by over 27 million barrels a day. Of that, the OECD to represent 2% of the growth, China+Russia+Brazil 25%, India+Africa 27%, and the RoW 46%.

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