Electoral model: Trump has at least an 87% chance of winning

Not the only “fundamentals”-based model to show a likely Republican victory this year. Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model also pointed to a probable GOP win based on things like the state of the economy, the president’s job approval, and whether the party in power has been there for two terms or just one. Abramowitz disowned his own model’s prediction this summer, though, on the theory that it only explains whether a generic Republican should defeat a genericDemocrat or vice versa. When you have a nominee who’s not at all generic, who in fact much of the public deeply dislikes and has deemed unfit for office, then don’t be surprised if that affects the results. In other words, the “Time for Change” model doesn’t say who will win the election so much as which party should have won it. And therein lies the tragedy for Republicans in 2016.

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This model, called the “Primary Model,” looks at different factors than “Time for Change,” although the amount of time that the incumbent party has been in power is relevant in both. Unlike Abramowitz, though, the man who developed itis sticking to his guns.

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