Six keys to the Maryland governor’s race

Marylanders are set to pick their next governor on Tuesday in what has shaped up to be a much tighter race in heavily Democratic Maryland than many had expected.

The contest between the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown, and his Republican opponent, Anne Arundel County businessman Larry Hogan, is likely to turn on a handful of factors. Here’s a look at six of them:

Will Baltimore County vote more like 2002 or 2010?

In 2002, the last time a Republican won a governor’s race in Maryland, he had Baltimore County to thank.

Democrats maintain a healthy registration advantage in the jurisdiction, but it is home to many blue-collar and suburban Democrats willing to vote Republican. And the county has more registered Republicans than any other in the state.

Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. was a popular congressman from the region in 2002 when he defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) by 66,170 votes statewide. Ehrlich’s margin in Baltimore County accounted for most of the difference in the governor’s race: He won there by 64,725 votes.

Since then, the county hasn’t been so friendly to Republicans. In 2006, then-Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) fought Ehrlich to a near-draw in the county en route to a modest victory statewide over the incumbent governor.

In 2010, O’Malley beat Ehrlich in Baltimore County as he won statewide by a much larger margin and Ehrlich failed to get his old job back.

On the campaign trail this year, Hogan has boasted that his polling shows him with 2002-size leads over Brown.

Voters in the county — particularly those on the east side, where manufacturing once reigned — could be receptive to Hogan’s message of tax cuts and job creation. But Hogan is not nearly as well known as Ehrlich was in 2002, and the county has also seen an influx of black voters relocating from the city, a phenomenon that could help Brown.

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