Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.
Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll — taken after the conventions — Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen’s state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states (according to Breitbart).
But it’s not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining ’04 and ’08 but skewing their samples to ’08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in ’04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in ’08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered “yes” for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.
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11 comments:
Dick Morris? Ha Ha Ha The man has made a career of being wrong.
I can't think of one election prediction where he has been wrong. I may be wrong myself but I've been following him since the Clinton era and he's always been right.
ahahahahahahahahahah...this is funny. Nuff said.
Keep on dreamin
The polls always over sample Democrats but in the last poll not only did they over sample Democrats but under sampled Independents.Romney has an 15 point advantage with this group and they sampled 37 no not 37% but 37 people registered as Independent.
They are going to try to keep the polls close up until the election. If Romney is actually shown with a substantial lead at any point, the already disheartened democratic base will not come out and vote.
Yup your right Romney is way ahead so you guys can stay home, no need for you to vote.
Romney will win in a fair election, but can he win in an election tainted by fraud? By all means, do not stay home as 6:08 suggests. We need every vote we can get to overcome the cheating that WILL occur.
7:03 That "our guy lost because the other guy stole the election" is getting to be an old, tired excuse when your side loses.
It's not about who's side will win. It's about restoring the viability of our country and retaining our stance as the world leader.
Im voting for Ron Paul. If you put Obama or Romney in office don't expect anything different than has been. They are establishment candidates. Your taxes will go up to fund more war and you will be treated irrelevant as you always are.
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