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Monday, November 12, 2012

The Coming Boom


Our collective record of predicting what the economy will do next is dreadful. Twelve years ago, few worried about terrorism, many worried about Y2K, and the thought of zero percent interest rates was preposterous. Not a single person knows what the future holds, and so what I'm about to write isn't so much a prediction, but an observation of potential.
After five years of collapse and stagnation, we could be on the cusp of a new economic boom. Not like the mid-1980s or late 1990s, mind you. But the odds that the next five years will be markedly better than the last five years are good, and growing better by the day.
The new boom will be driven by three things: A rebound in housing construction, the rise in domestic energy production, and the end of consumer debt deleveraging.
Start with housing. From 2002 to 2007, a net average of 1.3 million American households were created every year. During that time, almost 2 million new homes were built annually. Today, it's the other way around. In the last year, 1.1 million new households were formed; but, just 700,000 new homes were built.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

while sitting here on unemployment i would like to upgrade my home to a larger new one.
So jobs should be the first step. Tell all the companies that went to mexico to get their butts back to the USA.

Anonymous said...

Ain't nothing coming back until banks loosen up.

Anonymous said...

Ain't nothing coming back until the Socialist trend is reversed.

And what about the sequestration cuts and tax hikes. How are we going to finance the deficit. In my humble opinion - I think it is to late to reverse course now. The field has been sown and the chickens are soon to be coming home to roost.

Anonymous said...

5:58...absolutely right. All of this "economy won't get better til banks loosen up" and "bring companies back from Mexico" are hallucinations with no basis in fact whatsoever. We don't even generate enough revenue right now to service the interest on the debt we already owe! So...we borrow more money to pay the interest...which creates a larger liability! What is happening is....we are kicking the proverbial can further down the road. Tax all you want...it still won't generate enough revenue to fulfill our obligations! The cast has been set. Get ready!

Anonymous said...

5:58 and 6:22, spot on! This is a planned demise orchestrated by the global banking oligarchy thats been in the works since 1913. We need to all unite and resist the federal/private reserve

Anonymous said...

Observation of potential...I can look at the sun and observe the potential to solve all our energy needs but can/will it happen?? I hate articles like this that are supposed to make you feel there is hope for the economy improving. At least the are some SBY News readers that understand whats really happening to this country by design. Its not called the "fool" for nothing. Even though they occasionally do have a good article.