Mike Krieger Explains Why It's The Leadership, Stupid

It’s the first time we have power with people that don’t have courage. The people on top have power without courage. You cannot find any other society like it. Take the knights. The knights were people who of course, their trade was risking their lives. In theory, The President of the United States was supposed to be first in battle. Not someone pushing a button. The only way you can have a safe society is by moving these types of people (that risk nothing personally and take all the upside) out of their positions. Making them more accountable.

- Nassim Taleb (in this fantastic interview [19])

From our perspective, this is a critical idea. As we have said for several years, we do not see Iran as close to having a nuclear weapon. They may be close to being able to test a crude nuclear device under controlled circumstances (and we don't know this either), but the development of a deliverable nuclear weapon poses major challenges for Iran.

Moreover, while the Iranians may aspire to a deterrent via a viable nuclear weapons capability, we do not believe the Iranians see nuclear weapons as militarily useful. A few such weapons could devastate Israel, but Iran would be annihilated in retaliation. While the Iranians talk aggressively, historically they have acted cautiously. For Iran, nuclear weapons are far more valuable as a notional threat and bargaining chip than as something to be deployed. Indeed, the ideal situation is not quite having a weapon, and therefore not forcing anyone to act against them, but seeming close enough to be taken seriously. They certainly have achieved that.

- Stratfor “Considering a U.S.-Iranian Deal,” January 24th, 2012

More