3,971 persons voted in the 6-day early voting period for this year's general election. That's more than 150% greater than during the primary election, and the party split strongly suggests that the total vote will favor the Republican candidates as it did then.
In the primary 1,444 persons voted early, and the split was 54% Democrat to 46% Republican. Because the only polling place was the Civic Center, it is very likely that most of those voters (and those in the more recent early voting) reside in or very near Salisbury, which is more heavily Democrat than the rest of the County. Thus, it's not surprising that the turnout at polling stations throughout the County on the primary election day was a substantial Republican majority, which resulted in the surprising final split in the primary: 52% Republican to 48% Democrat.
This time, the early voting split is 52% Democrat, 48% Republican -- a bit closer than during the primary -- which indicates that on election day the Republican turnout will again significantly exceed the Democrat showing. What's more: there were 356 votes cast by independent voters (who could not vote in the primary), and if they are combined with the Republicans, the early voting split is 52% Republican & Independent, 48% Democrat.
At present it is unknown how the early voters actually voted, but there's good reason to speculate that the "crossover" greatly favored the Republican candidates, and that is likely to occur in the votes cast on November 2. It is very significant that Democrat voters in Wicomico County have strongly supported Bob Ehrlich in his two prior campaigns for Governor, so there should be considerable crossover by those voters at the top of the ballot, thereby increasing the likelihood of complete or very extensive crossover further down the ballot. And the fact that Andy Harris is much more popular this time could also help to induce some Democrats to crossover.
Thus, there could be a 55% to 45% edge for many Republican candidates, and greater in some races. There could very well be a Republican "super-majority" on the next County Council and possibly even a new County Executive. And, in light of the strong Republican showing in early voting in the surrounding Counties, things also look very good for Republican candidates for state offices -- Michael James in particular.
PS - it was already a given that Matt Maciarello will be elected as the next State's attorney -- now it's a lead-pipe cinch.
DelMarVa's Premier Source for News, Opinion, Analysis, and Human Interest Contact Publisher Joe Albero at alberobutzo@wmconnect.com or 410-430-5349
8 comments:
The whole house is going to fall.
Hi Joe,
The most important thing to note is that everyone should get out to vote.
But to spin a Democratic advantage in early voting into something good for Republicans seems quite a stretch.
It may indeed turn out as you say, but to suggest that you can read anything into these early voting numbers, when Maryland has only had early voting for such a short time, isn't credible.
Joe I believe your analysis is a very good prediction of what is to come.
8:51-
There is a distinct pattern in the voting during the primary that is clearly reoccurring in the general election, as discussed in the post. Like it or not, there will be a strong Republican showing tomorrow, just as in the primary, and the independent vote will also favor that party's candidates. Also, there will be some, possible substantial, crossover voting by Democrat voters.
You can thank O'Malley, Obama, Pelosi and Hoyer for the outcome.
as a registered Dem, i voted early...a straight Republican ticket. Kinda matches your spin on the voting.
John
Yes the democrats have voted BUT did they voe republican or democrat...I think republican..so come on and vote...republican...the better choice.
I understand what has been posted here but, I am a registered independent and most of my friends happen to be Democrat but some are Republicans.
I can tell you that every one of the Democrats have said they will for the FIRST time be voting a straight DEMOCRATIC ticket this election. The Republicans, well, they always vote Republican no matter what so I was in for no surprise there.
I agree the Republicans will come out in high numbers but don't bet on the Democrats crossing party lines with their votes in high numbers and definitely don't count on most of the independents voting Republican either.
I will be voting BOTH sides of the ticket once again this election because I vote for the one I feel will do the best JOB, period!
This Democrat voted early and mostly for the Republican candidates in Wicomico County.
For the Gov. and 1st District I went Libertarian though.
Post a Comment