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Friday, April 16, 2010

Fight Night Analysis and Predictions

The night we've all been waiting for is finally here!

Later today Fernando Guerrero (17-0, 14 KOs) will take on Michael "The Midnight Stalker" Walker (19-3, 12 KOs) in front of a crowd of 6,000+ rabid boxing fans. While that fight is correctly the main event, sensational Shawn Porter (13-0, 10 KOs) makes his fourth appearance in Salisbury and will fight in the co-feature. He'll be swapping leather with big talking and hard punching Raul Pinzon (17-4, 16 KOs). These two will both be shown on Showtime. The un-televised undercard boasts five more scheduled fights.

Alex Guerrero (3-0, 1 KO) will take on Jabir Abdul Basit (3-0-1, 3 KOs, 1 no contest). For Alex, Fernando's older brother, this is going to be a very difficult fight. The last time out Basit could only manage a draw against Clinton Hest(1-2-1, 1 KO). However, his three previous fights he ended each opponent's night early via knockout. After beating Rodricka Ray (2-4-1, 1 KO) in his first two fights by decision, Guerrero won his last fight by way of first round knockout felling Johnny Fields (0-1) in the disposed professional debut. Look for Alex Guerrero to lose a round, but pick up a solid 39-37 (3 rounds to 1) decision.

Mario Stansley (0-1) will likely open up the evening (the schedule hasn't been released other than the two televised fights) trying to right the ship after being knocked out in his professional debut. His opponent, who will be making his initial fight in the pros is Tahir Thomas. I'm not going to blow sunshine up your skirt, I don't know anything about these two fighters. But sometimes the unknown fighters actually provide the fight of the night. Don't get there late and miss any of the action.

Canadian Adonis Stevenson (13-0, 10 KOs) is a super middleweight on the move. He's already flattened Anthony Bonsante (32-11-3, 18 KOs), who you may remember from the television show "The Contender" and has knocked his last three opponents out. His adversary is Darnell Boone (16-15-2, 6 KOs). Boone is really a professional opponent. He is one of those blue collar guys that shows up on a moment's notice and will fight anyone, anywhere. In 2005 he knocked down current WBA Supermiddle weight champion Andre Ward (21-0, 13 KOs), but lost. Stevenson should win easily, but in 33 professional fights Boone has only been knocked out once and that was nearly 5 years ago. Stevenson by unanimous decision 78-74 (6 rounds to 2).

DC's Ty Barnett (16-1-1, 11 KOs) will be beating up on Broderick Antoine (10-8-1, 5 KOs). Barnett was knocked out in the first round on the undercard of the Purdue Stadium show. It was his first and only loss. The intrigue of this match will be to see how Barnett handles being back in the ring after that epic failure. He has the perfect opponent to ease back into action as Antoine has made a living playing king of the hill with boxers of questionable quality and dubious records. Barnett will win by second round knockout.

The Olympian Dominic Wade (5-0, 5 KOs) will return to Salisbury to knock out Robert Kliewer (10-9-2, 5 KOs). Kliewer has lost five of his last six, four of those losses coming by knockout. Wade will dominate and knock Kliewer out in the first round.

The first televised fight will be Shawn Porter (13-0, 10 KOs) and Raul Pinzon (17-4, 16 KOs). Pinzon actually said, "Porter is fast, but he can't punch". What film has he been watching? Porter's power is nearly as unquestionable as his speed. However, what Pinzon lacks in film watching skills, he more then makes up for with his own power. He began his career with twelve straight knockouts. His power is explosive, but his chin is questionable. He's been knocked out three times officially, with a fourth time later ruled a "no contest". I believe Porter's speed will be able to break Pinzon down over a number of rounds. I look for him to unleash a torrid body attack in the early rounds and catch his opponent against the ropes and take him out in the middle rounds. Shawn Porter by fifth round KO.

In the main event Fernando Guerrero (17-0, 14 KOs) will trade punches with Michael "The Midnight Stalker" Walker (19-3-2, 12 KOs). Walker said of the good people of Salisbury, "I want to shut the crowd up. I want to send them home crying." I believe him. He really does want that, but as we all know, we don't always get what we want.

Walker talks a big game and he is a good boxer when he is in the ring with club fighters of marginal talent, but the one time he has had an opportunity to fight someone on Guerrero's level he was routed. On May 2nd, of last year he took on Daniel Jacobs (19-0, 16 KOs). Jacobs is the middleweight prospect that many boxing writers and experts rank ahead of Fernando as the best prospect. On two of the judges' scorecards Walker didn't win a round, on the third he won just one round. It was a technical beat down. In Walker's last fight he lost to Derrick Findley (15-3, 9 KOs). Findley is a lot like Walker, he's twice fought top talent and lost decisively both times. Against Walker, Findley won every round but one on two of the scorecards. I simply do not see any way Michael Walker can win this. He's not particularly fast, he only carries a 50% KO rate, isn't very strong and doesn't have the boxing skills or jab to win a unanimous decision.

I know Fernando Guerrero will win this match, the only real question I have to answer is how. Walker has never been knocked out as a pro. In three of Guerrero's four Salisbury matches he has won by decision, away from Salisbury he has knocked out thirteen of fourteen! (let's see the other local media give you a stat like that!) So given Walker's durable chin and Guerrero penchant for giving people mercy in front of the hometown fans I'm picking Fernando Guerrero to win by unanimous decision 99- 91(9 rounds to 1).

Make sure you come out and support the brothers Guerrero as well as the rest of the boxers on the card. The greater support we give our fights, the more likely we'll be rewarded with more fights.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Porter is giving up 11lbs, He could be in trouble. In fact the MD Commission can not allow a fight with over 11lbs difference in that weight class. I was at the weigh-in and many people thought Porter should not take the fight.
In every major fight where a fighter let his opponent have a weight advantage in return for money, the lighter guy lost.
Guerrero has never won every round and starts slow, Plus walker did not make the contract weight. Fernando puts his title on the line if he looses but Walker can not have the title if he wins, Walker threatened to walk,(no Pun intended) if he was forced to make weight. They knew that Guerrero would never let his hometown down by not fighting and played that card. So now Walker is the bigger man with an aggressive style. Dangerous fight, but look for Guerrero to make him pay for threatening to blow the show by using Fernando's fans like that. A reliable source stated that Walkers camp made the statement, "we don't need this S##t I got over six digits in the bank. The, take the fight or else, ultimatum, will make for great drama in the ring. If Walker puts the pressure on him this is going to be a war.
Barnett has demons to battle after his last fight but should be able to deal with them. However he wants a KO so bad that it might take him out of his game.
Wade was not an Olympian but made the trials, like Guerrero and Porter. Wade will seem to almost lull you to sleep by doing little but paw with his jab, then he will put you to sleep with his right hand.
Adonis Steveson was the Canadian Olympian and was a last minute ad on bout to make it seven fights. He is there to be tested to see if he is worth signing.
Alex Guerrero was set to fight a different guy but the matchmaker suggested Basit, a better undefeated fighter with basically the same record as Alex. Someones O will go. But it gives the fight fans a better show, Hey that rhymes. Alex will have to keep the jab in his face until he sets up his cannon of a right hand.
Like you say, I can't say much about the Thomas fight, A new guy with only a couple amateurs fights ,the nerves could play a factor, this is a big stage to debut on.

Ron Brawl said...

I stand corrected, it was Gary Russell, Jr., that was the 2008 Olympian from Capitol Heights, MD, and not Dominic Wade.

Anonymous said...

Pinzon is going to hurt em'!