SHOCK POLL: 'Blue Wave' Evaporates, 2018 Generic Ballot Back to Dead Heat

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Democrats with only a “negligible edge” over Republicans for November’s Congressional elections.

The poll, conducted over three days almost entirely before President Donald Trump’s well-received State of the Union Address, shows 47 percent of respondents saying they would vote for a generic congressional Democrat compared to 45 percent for a generic Republican, well within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error. This figure is a massive shift from earlier polls showing double digit Democratic leads and fueling pundits’ talk of a “blue wave” that could sweep Republicans from power.

The same polling agency, the Monmouth University Polling Institute (MUPI), found a 15 point generic Democratic advantage using the same question only last month.

Patrick Murray, MUPI’s director, gave some context, noting generic polls’ volitility, but he confirmed that the figures, coupled with the same poll’s finding of growing support for the tax cut the GOP passed with no Democratic support, spells trouble for proponents of the “blue wave” theory. “The generic Congressional ballot is prone to bouncing around for a bit until the campaign really gets underway later this year. But Democrats who counted on riding public hostility toward the tax bill to retake the House may have to rethink that strategy,” he said.

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