Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.
The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup's mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.
However, Gallup's monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.
Further, Gallup's underemployment measure suggests that the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is declining as the unemployment rate increases. To some degree, this may reflect a reduced company demand for new part-time employees. For example, employers may be converting some existing part-time workers to full time when they are needed as replacements, but may not in turn be hiring replacement part-time workers.
Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests.
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2 comments:
I suppose that those unemployed people haven't been told that the recession is over...now would someone please take a moment to ask the banks NOT to take their house and car yet? I'm sorry --- my bad --- that would entail believing that the banks actually gave a crap about anyone or anything other than their inflated salaries, huge bonuses, and exceptional "pull" in Congress, which, I guess, comes from all those "campaign contributions"....I know -- I'm jaded --- the TRUTH is that NO congressman would EVER, EVER, under NO circumstances, no way no how, take $300,000 in "campaign contributions" (bribes, for the uninitiated) and give anyone "special" consideration. I'm sorry for even thinking that.
Thanks Obama you promised change and we got it, you are a Muslim of your word thank you!!!
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