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Friday, March 04, 2016

Which Party Is Trump Winning?

First, the obvious notes from Super Tuesday. Donald Trump further cleared his path to the Republican nomination — but he also underperformed expectations, winning seven and not 10 or 11 states. Ted Cruz won three states, bolstering his claim to being the only viable Trump alternative, though he now heads for less friendly territory. Marco Rubio finally won a state, giving him hope going into Florida and other states that are closer to Minnesota, where he won, and Virginia, where he nearly did (but didn’t because of John Kasich). At this point, the (narrow) path for either Cruz or Rubio likely involves a brokered convention.

Second, the underlying stories. Yes, Trump has won 10 of the first 15 states, but he only pulled a grand total of 34% of the vote Tuesday and has yet to win a majority anywhere. Combined, Cruz and Rubio have about 50%. And Trump’s share of the delegates declined from 66% before Tuesday to 49%.

Drilling down even deeper we find that Trump is winning because of voters who aren’t Republican. His surprise loss in Oklahoma may demonstrate this, because it was a closed primary (only Republicans could vote). Massachusetts illustrates it too — it was Trump’s highest performing state (49%) and 20,000 Democrats crossed the aisle to vote for him. Through March 15, another 10 states will vote and eight of them are Republican-only.

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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh no this means he could win the general election ...GO TRUMP!!!

Anonymous said...

If the RNC blows this by persecuting him instead of supporting what the majority actually want. I think it will be the destruction of the party. I intend to vote Trump even if he is not on the ticket. Write ins are allowed. I don't think either of the others can beat whoever is the Democrat opposition. It is sad but due to the inability of the RNC to support the vote getter they will be losing an election and a country.
I would also then leave the party and register Independent.
Enough is enough. We don't want the same old stuff rammed down our throats anymore.

Anonymous said...

I didn't realize that Glenn Beck was against Trump , I listened to Beck this morning about a statement Trump made about ordering the military to kill the families who celebrated the 911 incident.
Having been a recon infantry soldier 1967 , I witnessed young ladies who were the enemy preparing to blow up our patrol. All is fair in love and war. We didn't kill the ladies , but we handed them over to the Rok soldiers , who knows what they did.
After 911 , if by chance I saw these muslims celebrating in the streets , God only knows what I would have done.
I have learned to dislike all muslims , maybe I'm wrong , but I don't think so.

Anonymous said...

11:31
You should only dislike the Muslims who are the enemy of Israel. Many of the others (like the Muslim Brotherhood) are financed by and do the work of the Mossad.

You have to really work to get the correct information now a days. There are many people who are controlled opposition, and they are actually our friends (friends of Israel).

The most important function of the US military is to protect our leaders in Israel. That is why Obama has been such a lousy POTUS. Hillary is definitely a friend of Israel and will make a better POTUS than Obama.

Anonymous said...

I agree totally. You may not like Clintons for their thievery but they have always known what side their bread was buttered. They are loyal to Israel and that is why they will win again. It is the only thing that matters as far as the President elections go.

KBinLA said...

Let me ask just one question., and 1:22pm it's your comment that's raised it.
Do some muslims carry a differently worded Quran? Or, are the same passages in all of them?
If they're all the same then 11:31am is dead on.

Anonymous said...

He's gaining votes from every party, every day.