The Primary Known Unknowns

The results of the Iowa caucuses have shown us several important things. 1) Everybody hates the establishment of both parties. 2) No one trusts the media anymore. 3) Pollsters have no clue how to conduct polling in the fast-paced world of smartphones and social media.

Ted Cruz easily won the Iowa caucuses on the Republican side, despite trailing Donald Trump by as much as 20 points in some polls, and despite the GOP establishment and the ethanol lobby doing their best to take him down. In fact, the establishment’s scorn is a huge part of Cruz’s appeal. Cruz’s net favorability leads all Republican candidates with a rating of +45% (61% favorable, 16% unfavorable) among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, according to a recent Gallup poll. Establishment favorite Jeb Bush has a net favorability of -1%.

The top five vote-getters on the GOP side were all anti-establishment/outsider candidates: Ted Cruz (28%), Donald Trump (24%), Marco Rubio (23%), Ben Carson (9%) and Rand Paul (5%) (though Paul just announced he is ending his campaign). That is an astonishing 89% of votes cast. And before anyone claims that Rubio, among the first Tea Party candidates elected, is now an establishment guy, ask yourself why theestablishment attacks against him are second in intensity only to those waged against Cruz. Rubio has a lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 98 (out of 100). He has a perfect NRA rating. Citizens Against Government Waste gives him a 95, and National Right to Life gives him a 100. Without Rubio’s participation in the Gang of Eight fiasco, he would arguably be the undisputed favorite at this point, with heavy support from the conservative grassroots — because he’s a genuine conservative.

Now the questions are these: What does this all mean? Is Trump now mortally wounded? Does Cruz have a clear path to the nomination? Is Rubio’s rise a growing fire or a shooting star?

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