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Wednesday, April 25, 2012


So much for a moderate decline in the economy. As we warned back in February when we noted that the non-seasonally unadjusted collapse in durable goods was historic, now that the aftereffect of a record warm winter is fully gone, the March durable goods data comes in and it was a complete disaster: instead of dropping modestly by 1.7% as the consensus expected, the March actual print was a massive 4.2% decline, worse than the worst Wall Street forecast, or the most since January 2009! And it was not only airplanes as many were expecting (despite Boeing’s just announced epic sales): the ex-transportation number was down 1.1%, on expectations of a 0.5% gain; even worse, capital goods new orders slid 0.8% on expectations of a 1% gain. And as usual inventories hit another record high. Overall, a horrendous print which confirms that the entire myth of a recovery in Q1 was warm weather driven, and that about 1% of the 2.5% or so consensus GDP was due to the weather. Expect the downward GDP revisions to come any second. But don’t expect the market to react to this news at all: after all if anything, this simply makes NEW QE/LTRO more likely and is to be cheered by all habitual gamblers.



Anonymous said...

This article is completely wrong. If you knew anything about the economy,you would know that it is not going into a double dip recession.

Anonymous said...

We have been in a depression for three years.

Anonymous said...

To 2:31 Posting

Your addition is wrong.

ought - ought = naught

Just go to Home Depot & Lowes and you'll see that there is virtually no business.

Anonymous said...

No you're addition is wrong. Are you sn economist or have you worked in finance? I do. If home depot and lowes are empty, please tell me why they have reported record earnings for the past 6 quarters???I don't see this as a depression either since the US is not in a negative GDP or have high interest rates on government bonds.

You people need to get your facts straight before you try to slam someone else.

Anonymous said...

It's more like a triple dip recession.

Anonymous said...

We are in stagnation.(low growth and very low volume in the market)