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Thursday, November 10, 2016

How did everyone get it so wrong?

Polls and predictive models failed to predict Trump’s strength.

Everybody was wrong. Again.

When Election Day dawned, almost all the pollsters, analytics nerds and political insiders in the country had Hillary Clinton waltzing into the White House.

By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections had been left in shambles — just like the ones a year ago that all-but ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

Headed into Election Day, polling evangelist Nate Silver’s 538 website put Clinton’s odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight, the site had more than flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent chance of winning.

Trump had notched hugely significant upset victories in Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — critical swing states where almost every public poll and most private projections had shown Clinton ahead.

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14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Everyone got it wrong, becasue they were just running off at the mouth and maybe had wishful thinking... More than likely though, they were lying and wanted you to vote their way, the establishment way... Like how you dumb ass people believe the news over people with evidence to prove the new media are lying...

The govt knows how stupid you slaves are, and if they just put something inn front of you, or drill you in the media with it you will do what they want... I am shock as well, that you slaves didn't vote the establishment way, after all you people act like animals during election time, trying to steal and trespass on private property to steal...

Anonymous said...

I am sooo glad that Trump won!
Now hopefully, this country has a chance to become strong again.

Anonymous said...

The media kept claiming Hillary would win..so dems didn't need to vote..then the pollsters only talk to idiots who will..answer them..or make stuff up to mess with them..lol...and they skewered trump on tv so much it pissed people off enough to get out to vote..the icing on the cake was Obama care increase letters!!!

Anonymous said...

The media exposed themselves as being in the tank for Hillary. They became so bold about it, they didn't even try to hide it. That turned off many including my kids in their 30s who were appalled. Not all younger people are sheep like the Dems think. And, I have to add all the last minute support from Jay Z, Katy Perry, etc. was a real TURN OFF. It smacked of pandering and desperation and helped drive out Trump's base. The Dems were just so off-base in this entire election. First mistake, annointing Hillary as their nominee.

Anonymous said...

The media did not get it wrong.

The media is a propaganda tool of the elite.
It's job was to convince Americans to vote for Hillary.
It failed.

It wasn't predicting anything at all.
It was propagandizing us.

Anonymous said...

Hillary "...waltzing into the White House"? Shuffling, stumbling or waddling, maybe, but definitely not waltzing.

Anonymous said...

9:55 wth is wrong with you? you've got real issues man.

Anonymous said...

It was sad to see so many people taken in by the MSM lies. I was surprised by some of my co-workers that did not bother to do any research, did not read a wiki leak and believed all the obvious shilling the media was doing on her behalf.

Some of my friends and neighbors I can't even look at without puzzlement of their euphoric ignorance.

Anonymous said...

The working class people spoke
End of conversation

Anonymous said...

These iPhone fb followers who take the internet too seriously are a big problem, they read one thing and don't bother to research..then they go and read tmz and Perez Hilton all day..they have no idea what the real world is..they think it's what's on thier phone screens..i doubt they even pick up a book unless they are required to,and forget turning off the tech for a day, it would literally kill them...sad

Anonymous said...

Who got it wrong ???? Just you mouth breathing Libtards.

Anonymous said...

11:33 its called frustration with you morons.

Anonymous said...

Got a big laugh at Elizabeth Warren talking about 2020,kook liberals haven't learned a thing.

Anonymous said...

The polls didn't take into consideration the fact that many people were voting to keep the supreme court from becoming totally liberal and they voted for the only person who could assure that the democrats couldn't do that. Very silent majority.