WINTER WEATHER PART II: Yesterday’s Propane Buzz focused entirely on the upcoming winter and some ‘forecasting’ I had come across from the weekend. This morning, I logged into WeatherBell.com and saw a brief post from Joe Bastardi.
Joe was writing about what he had just seen from the European computer models pursuant to the coming winter. He said that he is ‘fired up’ about this coming winter, which means he believes it will be cold and snowy. The European model weakens the ENSO signal even more, which “leaves the warm water ring in the Pacific and the warm western Atlantic as the dominant two factors. If this comes to pass and blocking is (in play), it offers the threat of winters that can resemble 1995-1996.” for this coming winter.
The ‘ENSO Signal’ describes the equatorial region off west of South America. ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation. When it’s a ‘cold signal’, it means that El Nino conditions are off the table, which seems to be the case for this coming year. So that is one very good thing for our chances at a cold winter. When the sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are consistently colder than normal below a certain departure from normal, that is when a La Nina event signal comes about. The models are still favoring either a weak La Nina or a La Nada…which is the cute term for neither a La Nina or El Nino influence.
If we have a weak La Nina, or La Nada, these are both good things for us and then you turn to examine what other climate driving factors are then present, which will have more ‘control’ or ‘influence’ over the weather we may experience in North America.
As Bastardi points out, which is what Matthew Holliday wrote about in the information I shared yesterday along with Al Marinaro’s charts showing what the American computer models were seeing, we’re looking at the warm SST’s off the Alaskan coast and potentially warmer waters in the western Atlantic, off the American East Coast.