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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Winter Weather Chatter

WINTER WEATHER PART II: Yesterday’s Propane Buzz focused entirely on the upcoming winter and some ‘forecasting’ I had come across from the weekend. This morning, I logged into and saw a brief post from Joe Bastardi.

Joe was writing about what he had just seen from the European computer models pursuant to the coming winter. He said that he is ‘fired up’ about this coming winter, which means he believes it will be cold and snowy. The European model weakens the ENSO signal even more, which “leaves the warm water ring in the Pacific and the warm western Atlantic as the dominant two factors. If this comes to pass and blocking is (in play), it offers the threat of winters that can resemble 1995-1996.” for this coming winter.

The ‘ENSO Signal’ describes the equatorial region off west of South America. ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation. When it’s a ‘cold signal’, it means that El Nino conditions are off the table, which seems to be the case for this coming year. So that is one very good thing for our chances at a cold winter. When the sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are consistently colder than normal below a certain departure from normal, that is when a La Nina event signal comes about. The models are still favoring either a weak La Nina or a La Nada…which is the cute term for neither a La Nina or El Nino influence.

If we have a weak La Nina, or La Nada, these are both good things for us and then you turn to examine what other climate driving factors are then present, which will have more ‘control’ or ‘influence’ over the weather we may experience in North America.

As Bastardi points out, which is what Matthew Holliday wrote about in the information I shared yesterday along with Al Marinaro’s charts showing what the American computer models were seeing, we’re looking at the warm SST’s off the Alaskan coast and potentially warmer waters in the western Atlantic, off the American East Coast.

More here


Anonymous said...

The good thing about this is.. you saw it here on Salisbury News in mid-August while there is still plenty of time to prepare. Before everything gets sold out. You will be ready.

Anonymous said...

Another thing Joe Bastardi mentioned was the very warm water off the East Coast, especially up north, which will tend to amplify storms on the coast.
This may be very significant for Delmarva this winter.. Nor' Easters. Remember in past winters, that kind of scenario generated some pretty big snowstorms.

Anonymous said...

I listen to John Moore and the website Ice Age now. Since 2010 the gulf stream has weaken and is now almost nonexistent in the mid Atlantic near Spain.

What this means is what we are seeing. A hotter Atlantic, especially along the east coast with nothing to carry the heat northward to moderate the ocean temperature.
This means hotter summers and brutally cold winters.
This is the elephant in the room that the weather guys in the media are told not to report. I believe the warmer ocean also is reason for the storms and flash flooding we have been seeing.

Anonymous said...

It's funny, when you look at the farmers almanac, the Eastern Shore of Virginia doesn't exist. It was totally left off the map!!!!