The published polling in this year's presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama's massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney's margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I'll tell you who you're voting for and I'll be right at least two times out of three!
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He'll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama's main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate's partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can't get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won't ever get there in the actual vote.
So here's where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen's polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana - which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He'll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But...
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama's lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don't count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That's the real state of play today.
11 comments:
There is some wishful thinking, Romney is done.
The Arab American voting block is going to be important. So far Romney is up by an unprecedented
70% in that block. FL and MI (both swing states) have enough Arab American voters that could push those states to Romney.
You are probably correct 12:22. It's just so evident when you go out any more that this "47%" are over running the decent people. You go to any store and the "baby momma's" with their illegitimate offsping are rampant. You go into court and these "baby daddy's" 7 times over are back giving the judge a sob story about how they can't go to jail because they have to take care of their kids.
We are just too saturated with those who have no goals, no ambition, no motivation, no self control---nothing but doing whatever they feel like doing with no regard for laws and morals and other people including their own children.
Joe:
Kudos for this - the mainstream media mod won't dare publish this.
Yea I do believe the race is much closer then what is being said in the media. They would leave you to believe Romney is absolutely done and should stop now. I certainly do not believe it one bit.
You better believe it. That is what happens when a party puts up an unqualified candidate and panders to an intolerant base. RIP GOP.
Go Ronney!
@ 2:21 not always because OBAMA is our President.
Romney is far far far from unqualified. We are blessed that someone as accomplished as Romney has stepped up to the plate. We do not get this chance often if ever as most successful people do not want the invasion of their privacy that comes with elected office.
Romney is a results driven, results focused and results oriented type of person as proven by his success in business.
He is a proven job creator. He know what the word budget means and knows how to work within their parameters and practicalities.
I hope Ron Paul or Romney wins, but if Obama wins, I really think and hope that someone will step up to the plate and take his -ss --t.
Ron Paul is not going to win so get that out of your head right now 9:08 and get onboard with Romney/Ryan. I voted for Paul in the primary and also just up until a few days ago had a Ron Paul bumper sticker on my car. I stopped by Wor Rep Headquarters and now have a Romney sticker.
Romney will have the streets in this country on the way back to being paved in gold. Yes, he is results driven. People can say whatever they want about Romney but the facts speak for themselves. Romney is an overachiever and everything he has touched has turned to gold. He had taken many a business out of bankruptcy and now they are tax paying, job producing success stories. Some even in our own neighborhood. This is what puts money back in the economy-JOBS. Not printing money (obama failed idea) not giving away money to unproven businesses (obama-Solydra for example-there are many more), not propping up the stockmarket (obama) because investors are way too smart to fall for that trick and disaster in the making,
Whereas obama has a distain and an insatiable jealousy of rich successful people Romney does not. Romney is well aware that when the average Joe on the street is making and spending money he also benefits so Romney wants to get people off of welfare and out making and having extra money to spend.
Any and all of obama's policies so far have failed at the most extreme level. It's time to have a real producer sitting in the oval office and not some empty chair whose only concern is class, race, warfare and divisiveness.
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