Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election.
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.
His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.
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8 comments:
Yup
FREEDOM OR SOCIALISIM.
Pollsters said the same thing about Hillary.
Trump’s trump card is the investigations that are ongoing and will use them in the eleventh hour.
Crawl back into Mommy's basement
Trump is toast.
Keep dreaming. Bill Barr will get a few nobody’s. Maybe. 15 months so far and NOTHING. One hearing with Lindsey Graham was a waste of time. People that voted trump will vote again will independents vote for him I don’t seeing republicans dropped the ball with big reach 3 years ago. Very few are seeing the Presidents message COVID-19 scare has been very effective
9:27 - please enlighten all of us regarding your thoughts on POTUS being “toast”. We would all enjoy hearing your documented and fact reasoned points.
Biden can’t even remember what toast is...
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