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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Diamond Princess Mysteries

OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.

So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.

As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?

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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

So why the fuss? Why destroy everything Trump worked so hard to improve. I hear the media say President Trump presidency is gone. Not so fast - he didn't start this virus. He would be damned if he did nothing like Obama during the Swine flu or he would be damned if he did. Good job Mr President - you have my vote 2020 - MAGA 🇺🇸

Anonymous said...

Pandemic started in China = orange mans fault.

Anonymous said...

President Trump has my vote in 2020 also! MAGA/KAG

TheRealRay said...

Huh ?

Anonymous said...

I agree... Trump will have my vote also. Could this be China's attempt to oust the Donald? Oh, the conspiracy theories will fly. Trump's administration is doing everything humanly possible to contain and defeat this with as little disruption as possible. The remedies make sense; it is up to the citizens to pay heed. Kids defying quarantine suggestions by going to spring break show immense immaturity and defiance. Hoarding is ridiculous and makes one wonder what will happen if a real crisis hits. Imagine for a moment Biden at the helm.....heck, he's not sure which virus this even is.

Anonymous said...

IMHO this is nothing more than an excuse to destroy all the good that has happened over the last 3 years. There are 22,000 deaths from the flu this year. Where is the panic. This needs to end.

Anonymous said...

9:57
I agree 100%
It is all about Trump

He is our saviour