North Korea and Cyber Catastrophe—Don’t Hold Your Breath

The heightened tension over North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons programs, combined with growing DPRK cyber capabilities and their use for coercion or theft, has led some to conclude that the North may launch cyber-attacks against US critical infrastructure, perhaps with catastrophic result.[1] We can best assess this risk by placing it in a larger strategic context, and in this context, a major cyber-attack by the North is unlikely.[2]

Several assumptions guide this assessment. First, the primary objective of the North Korean state and the Kim family is regime survival. Someone who is worshipped as a god-king by millions, controls immense personal wealth, and has unchecked power will be loath to put this at risk. Second, North Korea is willing to use provocations, including low level attacks, as part of its diplomatic repertoire, but attempts to calculate the limits of what it can do without provoking major conflict. Finally, while North Korean decision-making on the use of cyber actions is murky, it is likely that all major programs or actions require Kim’s approval.

North Korea is both cautious and cunning in its use of force, including cyber-attacks. It is willing to take provocative actions that flout international law and norms, but these have been limited in scope and effect, intended to shape and advance North Korea’s diplomatic agenda vis-à-vis the ROK and the US.

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