Why Rubio Can’t Win

Now that Chris Christie has crashed, John Kasich has been ghettoized, Scott Walker self-destructed, and nobody bought the idea of Jeb Bush, all the king’s horses and all the king’s men — as well as Fox News — are trying to shove Marco Rubio down the throats of the Republican electorate.

But they’ll never make the sale.

The fundamental fault line that runs through the middle of the Republican and Democratic parties is that which separates the establishment from the true believers. And nobody will cross that line unless there is absolutely no other option.

The basic strategy of the anti-Donald Trump hysterics is to force an amalgamation of the alternatives into a Great White Hope who can take on The Donald. They believe that Trump can only win a plurality and not a majority. Based on that flawed reasoning, they posit that all they have to do is to pick off the alternatives until there is only one remaining opponent to Trump, and they have decided that his name is Rubio.

But the defect in this thesis is that it ignores the fault line. Rand Paul voters didn’t go to Rubio, they went to Ted Cruz; Ben Carson voters would do likewise.

And should Rubio best Cruz and force his de facto withdrawal, his votes would not go to Rubio. They would go right to Trump.

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