Why Europe Is Losing the Refugee War

While hundreds of thousands of Middle Eastern and Afghani refugees pour into the European Union’s member nations, the EU seems to be treating the crisis as an academic exercise. It can be better understood as a war game that the EU is losing.

It’s neither a faculty lounge problem nor a war game, of course. An estimated four million refugees from Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen — as well as Afghanistan — are fleeing the conflicts in their nations for the possibility of a more peaceful home in Europe. As is often said, it is the largest refugee crisis Europe has endured since World War II.

However, if you analyze the crisis in war game terms, it becomes clearer why and how Europe is losing and will be defeated.

There are three sides in our war game scenario and it’s possible for more than one to “win.” On one side are the 28 European Union nations, many of which are members of NATO. They are not-quite-governed by the not-quite-sovereign European Union.

They face a tidal wave of refugees that threatens to radically change their demographic identity. It is something less than an invasion but much more than what peace can accommodate. It is, in short, a significant threat to their national security and their economies.

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