Can Larry Hogan win?

Just before Maryland’s June 24 primary election, gubernatorial candidate Anthony Brown said he considered the primary as “the bigger objective” and that the general election was a “little bit of a molehill to take in November.” Yet, after cruising to victory in June, Brown is having difficulty conquering that molehill. Or, as Meet The Press’s Chuck Todd puts it, “Brown is acting like a candidate who can’t put (Republican Larry) Hogan away, and in a blue state like Maryland, that tells you Brown is struggling.”

Can Larry Hogan win in the nation’s fourth most liberal state which only elects Republican governors every 36 years? Five weeks before election day, here’s how things stand:

The Campaigns

If Hogan gets every Republican and every independent vote he still loses in a state where Dems are 55 percent of the registered voters. That’s why Hogan is campaigning against Maryland’s high taxes and stagnant economy, a message with crossover appeal. Brown doesn’t want to fight on that battlefield, so he’s painting Hogan as a “right-wing extremist” on social issues. Brown wants the election to be a referendum on abortion, gun control and civil rights, not the O’Malley/Brown tax hikes.

Meanwhile, Brown is laying low letting his campaign manager, Justin Schall, do most of the talking. Will it be Brown or Schall who shows up to debate Hogan on TV?

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