Larry Sabato: Shutdown Blame Will Not Cost GOP The House

Giddy Democrats already measuring the drapes in the Speaker’s office for Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s return once voters, angered by the government shutdown, end the GOP’s reign, can put away their rulers. According to the authoritative and reliable political team at the University of Virginia, headed by Larry Sabato, there is little chance the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives.

“We continue to believe that the Republicans are strongly favored to hold control of the House,” said Sabato's top House analyst Kyle Kondik in the latest “Crystal Ball” weekly political newsletter put out by the school's Center for Politics and provided in advance to Secrets.

Unlike in 2010, when there were several vulnerable Democratic seats up for grabs in an election won by the GOP which installed Rep. John Boehner as speaker, there are few GOP House seats in play and most are moderate Republicans in districts President Obama won or did well in last year. They include three Virginia House members, Reps. Frank Wolf, Scott Rigell and Randy Forbes, though Kondik suggested that only Rigell’s seat is in jeopardy.

“Republicans just aren’t exposed this cycle the way Democrats were in 2010,” wrote Kondik of the upcoming 2014 midterms.

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