Even when the economy is terrible, even when the incumbent Democratic president has not been able to demonstrate success on job creation or growth, even when the standard of living for Americans is declining on his watch, the country will choose a Democrat “who cares about the problems of people like me” over the Republican. That alone is enough to make Republican heads spin for some time.
Many established beliefs about presidential politics have been proved false by Obama’s reelection: 1) the idea that when unemployment is above 7 percent, incumbents fail; 2) the notion that incumbent presidents who are reelected always increase their percentage of the vote over their first race; 3) the idea that late deciders break for the challenger; 4) the belief that if majorities say the country is on the “wrong track” the incumbent will be defeated. All wrong.
The problem with all of these so-called laws of politics is that they are based on a tiny sample. There have been only 20 presidential contests between 1936 (the year these “laws” are usually dated from) and today. That’s too small a data set from which to glean reliable trends, far less iron laws of politics.
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