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Tuesday, July 10, 2012

This Graph Says an Awful Lot About the So-Called ‘Recovery’

Lately, we’ve heard a lot about “the recovery” and lot of arguing over who’s to blame for its supposed slowdown. But before we got too bogged down in who’s responsible for retarding economic growth, maybe we should first look at the data.

Without one word of explanation, Harvard University econ professor Greg Mankiw posted the following graph to his blog:

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

The chart is simple to understand. Democrats took over the House and Senate in 2006. Obama took the White House in 2008. Even a cave man can grasp what's happened.

Anonymous said...

So for just a little perspective, one should look at the historical data using the same metric.

The average recovery time, as measured by the number of months between the bottom of a recession (= employment ratio) that it takes to return to the prerecession ratio, is about 35 months.

In our current recession, we bottomed out 31 months ago. But should consider that the ratio dropped almost 5 points from the prerecession high. Compare this to past recessions where we saw a 1-2 point drop (maximum 3 point in the mid 50's).

In the early 2000 recession, a recovery led by the GOP, the ratio never recovered to prerecession levels but did increase about 1.4 points following the bottom of the recession over the course of 28 months. Compare that to the 0.5 pt. increase we've had over the past 31 months.

Really if one takes an objective look at the data, there is a little something supporting either side's stance (Obama has failed at the recovery vs. GOP policies don't equate to recovery). But I'm pretty sure this crowd will simply take the snapshot presented in this post and try to bang on Obama.

But if you use this ratio alone as a metric for economic recovery, and the return of the ratio to prerecession levels as the standard for "recovered", it shows that the GOP policies of the past decade were an absolute failure and current policies aren't doing much better so far.

Anonymous said...

9:32, you sir are a big part of the problem. Look at who has been in power during both recessions and boom periods. Both parties have been in control or split control relatively evenly. You clowns that keep thinking it's all a Dem vs. Rep. thing are the reason why common sense fact-based solutions are thrown out the window in favor of the bs crud the politicians can feed the masses of blind ideologues.

Anonymous said...

And Obama now wants Romneys tax returns... you mean the same Obama who has sealed every record possible of his own? What a joke.

Anonymous said...

Both political parties are controlled by the bankers.

It is the bankers!

Not the parties. The parties are controlled. It doesn't matter WHO you vote for - the result will be the same.

End the Fed, end fiat currency, and end Zionism's usury.