Who Will Fernando Fight Next?

In this post I took care not to speak to Camp Guerrero. The reasoning behind this move was to allow myself to think outside of conventional wisdom when it comes to the subject matter. Instead, I am taking a large net approach to the question at hand. I'm going to name boxers Fernando Guerrero will never face, for a multitude of reasons.

To begin I need to state that I am only looking at opponents in the Middleweight division, which is from 154.1-160 pounds. Guerrero has actually fought as high as 168 1/2 pounds, which is Super Middleweight country. It is possible that he could fight more matches north of the Middleweight border, but I think it is unlikely.

That being said, I also need to remove champions and top contenders. I do not think Guerrero will be taking on the likes of WBC and WBO Champion Sergio Gabriel Martinez, WBA Champ Felix Sturm, IBF Champion Sebastian Sylvester or top contenders Kelly Pavlik and Roman Karmazin. I do believe Fernando has the talent to possibly upset some of these guys, but probably not the seasoning, yet.

I also should rule out the up-and-comer versus up-and-comer scenario. Boxers spend a lot time building their rep, fan base, rankings and size of their paychecks. Taking on other prospects on your way to a title shot is a quick way to lose a match and fall out of favor with the rankings gods. For now, I do not believe it would be beneficial for Fernando Guerrero to take on guys like Daniel Jacobs, Shawn Porter, Andy Lee or Craig McEwan. As a fan, all of these matches would be pure joy to watch, but from a business standpoint it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to put so much on the line for a relatively small payday. No, he should fight these guys for a title (if they earn one), defending his major title (if he earns one) or as a way to make a lot of money in a later career match, much the same way Mike Tyson cashed out against Lennox Lewis late in his career.

So what does this leave?

Faded veterans. These are boxers that have been around for several years and have normally fought for a title and/or been considered as a top contender at one time in their career. They have most likely lost some speed or strength, but still retain an elite level of boxing knowledge coming from a long career in the pros and amateurs. There are some things in life and boxing that have to be "caught", not taught. Fighting a faded veteran is a dangerous prospect, but the yield in ring knowledge is priceless.

Angel Hernandez (30-7, 17 KOs). Hernandez was once a promising prospect. In 2003 he unsuccessfully fought Ronald "Winky" Wright for the IBF Light Middleweight title. After that bout he also lost his next match, then took two years off and has gone 4-1 since. On May 22nd, he'll be taking on Peter Manfredo, Jr. (34-6, 18 KOs), who is the next person on the list of potentials. Manfredo, you might recall, fought on the boxing reality series "The Contender", losing in the finals to Sergio Mora. Manfredo holds some cache with the boxing public, has fought for a title and would be a very tough opponent for Fernando Guerrero to fight at this point in his career. I expect him to beat Hernandez, and if he does a fight with him would be something I think Showtime would be interested in broadcasting.

Carlos Manuel Baldomir (45-12-6, 14 KOs) would be an interesting match. In 2006, after a career in obscurity, Baldomir beat Zab Judah and Arturo Gatti in back-to-back matches, before being defeated by Floyd Mayweather, Jr. In 2005 Zab Judah had won all three major titles WBA-WBC-IBF and was known as the undisputed Welterweight champion. The sanctioning bodies didn't want Judah to fight a "walk over" match like Baldomir and told Judah to either fight their number one contender or give up his belts. He continued with the bout so both the IBF and WBA stripped him of their titles. Baldomir proved them and everyone else wrong when he beat Judah by an unanimous decision. People called it a fluke, but then he backed it up with a knockout victory over Arturo Gatti. Since his heady days of 2006, Baldomir has retired once and had a successful comeback fight. His post-2006 record stands at 2-2. At 5'7" he would be one of the few boxers on this list shorter than Fernando Guerrero.

Some other ring veterans to consider are: Howard Eastman, Sam Soliman, Keith Holmes, Bronco McKart and Antwun Echols.

Failed Prospects. These are guys that once had the attention of the boxing world. They were on their way to becoming the future of their weight class and/or the sport as a whole, but something happened and they were unable to fulfill the potential the experts had predicted. Perhaps they weren't as good as the talking heads thought? Perhaps success got to their head? Maybe their first $100,000 paycheck turned them from a gym rat into a lazy Joe Cool hanging out flashing the cash instead of doing the road work? There are a number of reasons prospects stray from the potential we foist upon them...

Matt Vanda (42-11, KOs 22) was once 31-0 with the world at his feet. Now he finds himself with an 11-11 record since his initial loss and coming off of two consecutive losses. He will fight Ivan Ledon (12-11-1, 11 KOs) on June 11th to try to right the ship. If he does could a match with Fernando be next? I'd certainly pick Guerrero to win, but Vanda has only been knocked out once, so I think he'd hang around and give him a good tussle.

The third group of fighters Team Guererro could consider for his next match is the tough or elite club fighter. These are guys that have talent, but will likely never get a title shot (or another title shot) or be ranked (at all or again). Some people call them "gate keepers", as they make a living fighting at a fairly consistent level from just outside of the top 20 up to the top 50. If a prospect wants to become a contender he must usually beat many of these guys on his ascent. I consider Michael Walker and Tyrone Watson as good examples of tough gatekeepers. Unfortunately, there are a number of these guys in the world. Certainly some of those I listed above also fall into this category. Here are a few more: Affif Belghecham, Willie Gibbs, Ruben Silva Diaz, Ruben Varon, Darnell Boone, Juan Astorga, Jose Miguel Rodriguez Berrio and George Walton.

To predict the exact person Team Guerrero will choose for his next contest with any level of certainty is a bit of a fool's errand. He is an up-and-coming presence in boxing, a future contender that a ton of people would love to fight. Guerrero is quickly becoming a guy those with no current path to a title shot would love to fight. Toppling him and his undefeated record would be quite a feather in the cap and likely lead to better paying fights for the victor. Given his talent and the awesome fan base he has in Salisbury, out-of-town fighters also see dollar signs and would love to be on a main event with a guy that can pack the house, while being showcased on Showtime.

The only downside I can see in Fernando Guerrero is he might be too good to attract some fights. Why would a top ten contender risk his position and possible future title match against an elite hungry fighter like Guerrero? Luckily, Fernando Guerrero has another year or two to go before he has to enter the contender fray, until then it will definitely be interesting to see which opponents his team puts before him and how he handles them.