Bettors on the popular predictions website PredictIt think there’s a real chance Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will drop out of the race before November, as her fainting spell at the 9/11 Memorial caused a substantial downward shift in her odds of becoming president while boosting the odds of other Democrats
PredictIt allows users to bet on the outcomes of upcoming events, particularly political ones such as the presidential election or the voting result in individual states. Shares are sold at amounts ranging from 1 cent to 99 cents. If an event happens, the shares are cashed in for a dollar apiece, but if it doesn’t, they become worthless. As a result, an event’s price on PredictIt roughly reflects its perceived likelihood of happening.
Going into Sept. 11, Clinton shares in the presidential election were trading at about 72 cents apiece, but as soon as video emerged of her collapsing while trying to enter a van, the price of Clinton’s shares began to tumble. At day’s end, they were selling for 64 cents apiece, suggesting Clinton’s chances of becoming president fell by about 8 percent purely due to the revelation regarding her health.