If Kasich Doesn’t Quit, Donald Trump Will Reach 1,237 on the First Ballot. Here is Proof.

John Kasich is a RINO operative that could not care less if a true conservative is elected in November or not. By lingering around like the party guest who won’t seem to go home, Kasich hopes to remain politically relevant until the convention but his tactics not only are likely to keep him from the presidency, but are greatly aiding Donald Trump. Each minute he wastes by staying in the election is helping to ensure a Trump nomination. Redstate explains exactly why:

John Kasich is out on the campaign trail telling everyone who will listen that no one is going to reach 1,237 delegates on the first ballot, and we are all headed to a contested convention no matter what. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is out there telling everyone who will listen that John Kasich is the only thing keeping him from reaching 1,237.

Both are selling lies to Republican voters. In Kasich’s case, that’s probably because his campaign is run by John Weaver, who is just fine with Democrats winning.

The reason Kasich is likely to throw the race to Trump has mostly to do with the way two states allocate their delegates – Indiana and California.

Let’s look at the math. Donald Trump is right now at 845 delegates. If you include just the pledged delegates from Tuesday, Trump is likely to walk away with at least 100 of those. That puts him at right around 950, even if you assume he will get zero of the non-pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. More on that later.

If the polling in Indiana is even slightly accurate, the presence of John Kasich in the race means that Trump will likely win close to 50 delegates in Indiana (as opposed to the 6-9 delegates he would likely get if John Kasich were not in the race), as I broke down yesterday. That puts Trump at almost exactly 1,000 heading down the home stretch of the campaign.

From that point on, there’s a lot of uncertainty n the calendar, but even painting a rosy scenario for the non-Trump forces, it looks like Trump will get 1,237 if Kasich does not drop out. Let’s assume that Cruz will sweep Nebraska, which is the most likely result. Extrapolating from the vote in western Virginia, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, it must be assumed that Trump will get at least an additional 15 delegates from WV. That puts him at 1,015.

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