Will Same-Sex Marriage Reach the Supreme Court?

Court watchers have an exciting term up ahead, with cases involving gay marriage and affirmative action, both possibly destined to be heard

There is hardly a political question in the U.S., Alexis de Tocqueville said, that does not sooner or later turn into a judicial one. The Supreme Court‘s new term — which began last week — may show just how right de Tocqueville was. The court could issue landmark rulings on affirmative action, same-sex marriage — and, less politically, in an array of other cases, including one involving the Constitution and drug-sniffing dogs.

The Supreme Court has a solid 5-4 conservative majority these days. The conservative Justices could deliver big setbacks to affirmative action and gay rights. But as the court demonstrated in June, when it unexpectedly upheld the new federal health care law, these things are not easy to predict.

This term’s biggest case is likely to be a challenge by a white student to affirmative action in university admissions. The court will hear arguments in the case, Fisher v. University of Texas, on Wednesday. In a pair of 5-4 decisions — in 1978 and 2003 — the court upheld affirmative action against charges of reverse discrimination. But the court’s 2003 ruling was only possible because Sandra Day O’Connor, a moderate conservative, voted with the liberal bloc. Since then, Justice O’Connor has been replaced by Samuel Alito, who is not a fan of race-based admissions policies.

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