GOP Keeps Its Powder Dry As Obama Runs Unopposed

The 2012 presidential race is on. Barack Obama is now formally running for re-election. Unopposed.

Of course, that's only technically true; a number of Republicans are clearly running for the White House. But so far none has made the big, official announcement. Given that Obama's job approval ratings are not so hot -- he's at 46.5 percent approval in the RealClearPolitics average of polls -- that strikes even some of the various Republican candidate camps as a little odd.

"It's certainly unusual," says an adviser to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has announced a presidential exploratory committee. "Especially since I don't hear any Republicans arguing that [Obama] is unbeatable."

With a vulnerable president running for re-election and retreating from policies at the same time -- see Obama's Monday surrender on trying 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in civilian court -- why aren't several GOP candidates already officially in the race?

One reason Republicans don't talk about much in public is that they are spooked by what happened to the last GOP presidential candidate. "I think some of it is the fear of repeating the McCain experience in '08 and building a machine that can't be sustained," says the Pawlenty adviser.

Back in 2006 and 2007, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., laid the foundation for a big, expensive, well-funded presidential race. Still bearing the scars of his loss to George W. Bush in the 2000 GOP primaries, McCain ran a big-spending operation until, in the summer of 2007, he ran out of cash and the campaign nearly died. McCain recovered and eventually won the nomination, but it was a very hard slog.

It's an experience today's GOP candidates don't want to repeat. "Our view is that things got started too soon last time," says a close adviser to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. "The only people who have been agitating for an early start [now] are the press and overcaffeinated political junkies, and I guess we can now add President Obama to that list."

There are other reasons GOP candidates are holding back. For one, when a candidate officially declares, campaign finance restrictions kick in, narrowing the sources of money that can be used for the campaign. For the moment, as undeclared candidates, they can draw on pre-presidential political action committees. And popular figures like Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee can also make paid speeches that double as pre-campaign appearances.

Another reason is that holding off gives pre-candidates the time to assemble and road-test campaign staff, without the scrutiny that accompanies a declared campaign. Yet another reason is that the action in the GOP at the moment is in the House of Representatives, and Republican candidates would have to fight with that for attention.

Holding off also has benefits for the Republican Party as a whole. If there were two or more declared GOP candidates right now, they would probably be attacking each other as much as Obama. "They're launching missiles at Obama," says GOP strategist and Bush adviser Karl Rove. "If they were official candidates, there would be a greater tendency to snipe at each other."
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