TO: SEN. ANDY HARRIS
FROM: BRIAN C. TRINGALI
KEVIN HUDAK
RE: FRANK KRATOVIL NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO CONGRESS
DATE: NOVEMBER 19, 2009
______________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our latest survey of voters across Maryland’s First Congressional District. The Andy Harry for U.S. Congress campaign commissioned The Tarrance Group to conduct a telephone survey of N=300 “likely” voters throughout the district. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +5.8% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered November 15-17 – although few respondents were called on Monday because of a Ravens game that evening.
Incumbent Democrat Congressman Frank Kratovil is not likely to be a part of the next Congress once it is convened in 2011. Kratovil has had a tough time of it since his election to the open seat last year. The evidence of this is borne out by our most recent survey of Maryland’s First Congressional District.
Despite his close loss in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, Andy Harris would be elected with a clear majority of the vote. Fifty-two percent (52%) of the voters are supportive of Harris, even before the race has heated up. Kratovil garners just 39% of the vote today.
At the same time, 88% of the voters have heard of Andy Harris – in part because of his previous campaign in 2008. In addition, Dr. Harris has been working hard already this cycle and has clearly benefitted from his early start on the 2010 contest.
5 comments:
Sadly, this may not be the case. There are more on the western shore 1st dist than on the easern shore, and the westerns go Dem.
Nancy Pelosi and the Commucrats will be spending millions so that Frank Kratovil will be re-elected, locally you can bet that Chuck Cook and Chris Fast Times at Ridgmont High Demone will be working SU to the max to sway the young minds.
If I were Andy I wouldn't be getting all cocky.
UGH! I as a voter do NOT want to hear this man campagin as Dr Harris ... He should refer to himself as Senator Harris, because I am not voting for a physician, I am voting for a legislator!!
Also - doesn't 300 people in a survey seems like a very small amount from which to extrapolate a conclusion. If 1,000 or 2,000 people were going one way or another, that I would be inclined to believe
anonymous 2:11, Nothing will please the wet pants liberals such as yourself.
Run very fast because even Kratovil knows his time is over and has known this for several months now, that's a fact.
No disrespect towards Frank. It's simply over for him and you guys know it. We've listened to your being defensive ever since he and Obama were elected. Unlike real men who use their names, you hide behind anonymous because very few of you are too afraid to show your faces after calling people like me a racist when you had no evidence of such.
Harris is a good man and the citizens in the 1st District gave the man a shot, he failed. It's not just this poll. Look at all the articles of the MSM calling Frank a failure. The ONLT competition Frank will face is Andy Harris and now it's Andy's turn to turn thing in the right direction, against Pelosi.
Since Kratovil has nothing to lose, he'll do Pelosi's bidding while he's there, Healthcare, cap & trade if their still so foolish as to push that LIE, next job stimulus 3.0, and any other Dem wish.
K. has nothing to lose by ignoring the shore.
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