Wrecking the Economy with Discredited Computer Models

By Ellen Sauerbrey

Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist at Imperial College London, panicked policy makers around the world when he released his computer model projecting that the coronavirus pandemic would result in 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the U.S.

It is hard to understand why his pronouncement was accepted so uncritically when he has a history of being wrong. Very wrong. .

According to The Spectator, in 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. The actual number was several hundred.

In 2009 he gave an estimate of 65,000 deaths from the Swine Flu in the UK. UK Deaths actually numbered less than 500.

Ferguson’s dangerously inflated computer models have led to policies that are wrecking the American economy.

The frightening specter Ferguson predicted, created understandable fear that a flood of COVID 19 patients would quickly overwhelm the medical system. In order to prevent an influx into the hospitals, we were told it was critical to “flatten the curve”; in other words slow the spread of disease and space out the cases needing hospitalization over a longer period of time.

President Trump announced guidelines he called “Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread”. Notice it said to slow the spread, not thwart infections. This was extended an additional 30 days to the end of April. Because Americans have taken the social distancing and stay at home recommendations to heart, flattening the curve has been very successful.

Thankfully the projected deaths Ferguson forecast were incredibly inflated and it is now possible that the death rate may be no greater than that experienced in some years with the annual flu. In 2018 the CDC reported that 80,000 Americas died of flu the previous winter.

All deaths are tragic, but no government policy is capable of preventing death. It is now clear that most COVID 19 deaths involve persons with underlying medical conditions and nearly half are occurring in nursing homes. Researchers now believe that more than 80 percent of the population has little or nothing to fear from the coronavirus. Public policy should focus on protecting those at high risk and allowing the rest of us to get on with a normal life.

Many hospital beds remain unused, doctors and nurses have been laid off and hospitals are in financial trouble because they are not allowed to provide non-COVID “elective” care. As the shutdown and isolation continues it will be costing lives lost to depression, alcohol, drugs, suicide and people who are not being treated for necessary medical needs.

The medical system is no longer in danger of collapse but thousands of small business that are the backbone of the middle class in America are. There are already many casualties and countlessmore small businesses will go under permanently if not allowed to open quickly.
In normal times, small businesses struggle to compete with big box stores. Giving large retailers the opportunity to stay in business and capture more market share while forcing small businesses to be closed has been patently unfair. Walmart recently announced it would be adding 150,000 employees to meet “'demand in our stores” while record numbers of employees of small businesses have lost their jobs. It is not the prerogative of government to decide which jobs and businesses are essential.

If large stores can be open, with social distancing and other measures to protect their workers, many small retailers can be equally safe. In fact, many shoppers would feel much safer, donning a mask and going to the local paint store or card shop than standing in line waiting to get into or check out at a big box store.

Throughout the country, governors have lost track of the intent of the social distancing guidelines which were expected to slow, not prevent the spread of the highly contagious virus. Without a vaccine, (which may or may not be found) sooner or later most of the population will contract the virus, developing herd immunity,

Instead of doubling down on social isolation, governors must reopen the economy, protect vulnerable Americans, allow people to get back to work and provide for their families. Lockdowns, unemployment checks and federal bailouts are unsustainable and will bankrupt the country. We should not continue wrecking the economy and mortgaging the nation’s future over excessive fears created by a discredited computer model.

.The author is the former Minority Leader in the Maryland House of Delegates and Former U.S.Asisstant Secretary of State.