Is Trump About to Pull a Major Upset?

The Wisconsin Republican polls are getting closer just as voters make their way to the polling places today. The latest released data from one of the many pollsters surveying the Badger State electorate actually shows Donald Trump regaining the lead against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). But, is the American Research Group survey (4/1-3; 400 WI likely Republican primary voters) an outlier? Probably so, but others are detecting a momentum shift. 

The ARG data suggests that Mr. Trump has surprisingly taken a 42-32-23% lead over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH), respectively. This is completely the opposite of numbers we saw last week: Fox News, 42-32-19% Cruz over Trump and Kasich, and Marquette Law School, 40-30-21%, again Cruz over Trump and Kasich. While it is certainly possible that Trump has regained some momentum, it is largely inexplicable that the Wisconsin race would have flipped so entirely in such a short amount of time. 

We do have some further data that suggest Trump has momentum, however. The Emerson College Polling Society (3/30-4/3; 549 WI likely Republican primary voters) and CBS/YouGov (3/29-4/1; 675 WI likely GOP primary voters) find a closing of the race in the final days, but not to the degree of ARG. The Emerson College results are 40-35-21%, Cruz-Trump-Kasich, while CBS/YouGov finds a 43-37-18% split in the same order as Emerson. 

Therefore, as we get closer to the actual Wisconsin vote, Trump continues to improve his standing so it is quite possible the actual results will be closer than last week’s trends projected. 

But, the statewide ballot test is only relevant for the 15 at-large GOP delegates, because Wisconsin employs a Winner-Take-All by congressional district system for the remaining 24 delegates. The three RNC convention votes are also bound to the statewide vote. Unfortunately, none of the polls segmented their data by congressional district – and ARG’s statewide sample of 400 is too small to have given us an accurate district depiction, anyway – so it’s difficult to see where Trump is gaining the most momentum and how delegate apportionment is affected in the eight CDs that control the largest portion of Wisconsin’s 42-delegate allotment. 

According to last week’s Marquette Law School poll that divided the state not in congressional district segments but rather media markets, it appeared that Cruz was doing well in Milwaukee, and the state’s eastern region from north to south. Trump was faring better in the western portion of the state, and Kasich looked to have the upper hand in the Madison media market. This would translate largely into congressional district victories for Cruz in districts 1, 4, 5, 6, and 7; Trump in districts 3 and 8; and Kasich prevailing in district 2. Assuming this split would give Cruz the statewide margin, the delegate count would break 33-6-3 in Cruz’s favor. 

If the most recent polling is accurate, however, this apportionment could change, but only slightly even under a closer statewide vote. It is difficult to see a statewide winner taking less than four of the eight CDs, so even a close win would more likely generate a 30-9-3 count, assuming Kasich holds in Madison’s District 2. With the 18 at-large and RNC delegates coming with the statewide margin, the tonight’s winner is going to reap a substantial benefit even in a close statewide spread. 

As the voters begin casting ballots in today’s stand-alone open primary, the results could be more interesting than believed last week, even though the delegate count will largely remain constant to the earlier projections.

Source: AAN