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Thursday, September 10, 2015

Donald Trump vs. the Party: Why He’s Still Such a Long Shot

When Donald Trump reached the top of the polls in July, his candidacy seemed very familiar, at least to me.

His coalition was ideologically incoherent, and he had no support from party elites. His surge looked like a media-driven phenomenon with no foundation — exactly the sort of candidacy prone to collapse once coverage turned negative. It was a story that played out over and over again in the 2012 campaign.

Two months later, Mr. Trump has not gone bust, as I thought he would. He has demonstrated that he can drive the media as much as the media is driving his support. And his coalition is united as much by affection for his demeanor as his policies — insulating him from fallout over inflammatory remarks that would doom other candidates.

Suddenly, the question isn’t whether Mr. Trump is different from someone like Herman Cain in 2012, but how different? Is he so different that he could survive not just for a month or two, but all the way to Iowa and New Hampshire? Is he so different that he could even win?



Anonymous said...

Who cares what Nate Cohn (he/she) from the New York Times thinks? The insiders have been saying that the lapdog media and RINO establishment would take Trump down from the beginning. Things are way different this time, the country is going to Hell quickly and it's not going to be business as usual this time. We are mad as Hell and not going to take it anymore.

Anonymous said...

From the NY Times article: "Republicans in those states are generally more moderate, less religious and better educated than the red-state Republicans."

Good news bad news. If you are a Republican in Md then you are probably smarter than average. If you are a Republican from a red state you are just a hick rube. Typical liberal newspaper trash. Funny that they talk about Trump but don't mention how in 2008 Clinton was the anointed one until the media got tired of her and started backing BO (look how that turned out) and are now doing the same thing again.

Anonymous said...

It is the moderate republicans that will make or break the election. There are not enough red state republicans to carry a candidate to the Whitehouse.

Anonymous said...

The establishment will never allow him to run.
It will be Jeb Bush. They have already made their pick.

Anonymous said...

10:42 There are not enough Republicans, period, who can take a candidate to the WH. Republicans will need a candidate that will appeal to Democrats willing to crossover. There are plenty that do support Clinton.

Anonymous said...

Ronald Regan was also opposed by the establishment. Ho took his gloves off and fought for the will of the people and won in a landslide. I see the same thing happening here. The people that are behind his election are tired of the b.s. that we have been fed for the last 7 years by the current administration.

Anonymous said...

He needs to keep his mouth shut for 12 months this is what will do him in.