Chart Of The Day - The Hiringless Recovery

Many have opined that while the unemployment rate may be 6.6%, down from a peak of 10% three and a half year ago, the so-called recovery sure doesn't feel like one: after all so many Americans are still struggling to find work and as so many complain, employers are simply not hiring.

But how is that possible if the establishment survey tells us that the 12 month cumulative change in payrolls is now back to its ~2 million pre-recession average? Well, as it turns out, all those who complain about lack of hiring, are absolutely correct.

As the chart below shows, using the most recent JOLTS data, while historically the hires and cumulative job change numbers have tracked each other almost perfectly, in the current environment, hiring is far below where it should be if one were to believe the headline job numbers.

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