It's Iowa minus one month, and barring yet another resurrection, or something of similar improbability, it's Mitt Romney versus Newt Gingrich. In a match race, here's the scorecard:
Romney has managed to weather the debates unscathed. However, the brittleness he showed when confronted with the kind of informed follow-up questions that Bret Baier tossed his way Tuesday on Fox's "Special Report" -- the kind of scrutiny one doesn't get in multiplayer debates -- suggests that Romney may become increasingly vulnerable as the field narrows.
Moreover, Romney has profited from the temporary rise and spontaneous combustion of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain. It required no exertion on Romney's part.
Enter Gingrich, the current vessel for anti-Romney forces -- and likely the final one. Gingrich's obvious weakness is a history of flip-flops, zigzags and mind changes even more extensive than Romney's -- on climate change, the health care mandate, cap-and-trade, Libya, the Ryan Medicare plan, etc.
The list is long. But what distinguishes Gingrich from Romney -- and mitigates these heresies in the eyes of conservatives -- is that he authored a historic conservative triumph: the 1994 Republican takeover of the House after 40 years of Democratic control.
Which means that Gingrich's apostasies are seen as deviations from his conservative core -- while Romney's flip-flops are seen as deviations from ... nothing. Romney has no signature achievement, legislation or manifesto that identifies him as a core conservative.
So what is he? A center-right, classic Northeastern Republican who, over time, has adopted a specific, quite bold, thoroughly conservative platform. His entitlement reform, for example, is more courageous than that of any candidate, including Barack Obama. Nevertheless, the party base, ostentatiously pursuing serial suitors-of-the-month, considers him ideologically unreliable. Hence the current ardor for Gingrich.
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