Influential Coronavirus Tracking Model Shows Steep Decline In Death, Bed Shortage Projections

An influential prediction model, referenced routinely by White House coronavirus task for leader Dr. Deborah Birx, has been updated to reflect a major change in death and bed shortage projections, according to the Associated Press.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington’s School of Medicine now says they’re COVID-19 projection model shows a sharp decline in anticipated deaths, anticipated bed shortages, and even anticipated infections — a change made as new data about the virus’ real-world spread becomes available and analysts are able to monitor epicenters, like New York City, in real time.

“Updated COVID-19 estimates find that need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic are less than previously estimated,” the AP reports, adding that IHME used data from European outbreaks to better understand how patients are selected for intensive care units and how long most coronavirus-related ICU stays last.

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