The Fed’s Getting Ready to Raise into Weakness

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I was surprised this week that the stock market reached new highs — despite the fact that expectations of a March rate hike by the Fed moved from 40% to 60% in three days. Today those expectations are about 75%.

But I’ve been calling a March rate hike since late December. I was almost alone in that view. Wall Street analysts were paying lip service to the idea that the Fed might raise rates twice before the end of the year, but said the process might begin in June, not March. Market indicators were giving only a 25% chance of a rate hike within the past couple weeks.

Is it because I’m smarter than all these other analysts?

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