Counterfeiting Trust

We are fast approaching the moment when the value of the counterfeit trust, the counterfeit assets and the counterfeit promises are revealed as fakes.

The heart of any con is winning the trust of the mark, and the heart of counterfeiting is persuading the mark that a facsimile of value is real. Counterfeiting is one con among many, but its terrible beauty lies in the durability of the con: just as counterfeit paper currency can continue to pass as authentic money from one mark to the next, counterfeit assets can be traded until the very moment the con is revealed and trust is lost.

Understood in this way, what the central banks and governments of the world are really doing is counterfeiting trust: trust that the paper money in your wallet/purse will hold its value in the future, trust that assets presented as zero-risk can be sold for full face value at a later date, and trust that entitlement promises will be paid.

Please forgive the repetition of this chart of the S&P 500 over the past 18 years, but it raises this question: Which do you trust more: the Fed's implicit promise that the stock market will never crash again (because "the Fed has our back"), or that every asset bubble boom is inevitably followed by a bust?

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