Egyptian Civil Strife Sends Oil Close To $100 On Suez Canal Fears

Investors have their eyes on Egypt as civil unrest in the North African country has progressively escalated into a full blown crisis with international repercussions.  Beyond the obvious and inexcusable human cost, the protests against Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year reign have hit the sovereign debt and equity markets, and are working their way through the oil and gold markets.

As Egypt’s youth battles the police’s rubber bullets and tear gas with Molotov cocktails and rocks, Egyptian equity markets have been taking an expected beating.  The EGX30 equity index lost 10.5% on Thursday January 27 hitting its lowest level in 19 months.

Authorities in Egypt have blocked out internet and mobile phone access in an attempt to disrupt the protests.

The situation could have ripple effects worldwide if the Suez Canal becomes jeopardized or even shut down.  According to Canaccord Genuity, “this may be impactful as approximately 1.8 million bb/d of oil was transported through the Suez Canal in 2009. A closure of the canal would result in an extra 6,000 miles of travel for any oil being transported out of the region, an additional cost which could drive up oil prices.”  International oil prices are already racing towards the $100 a barrel mark.  Brent crude oil contracts for March, “the global benchmark,” hit their highest level since late 2008 at $99.63 per barrel on January 28.  West Texas Intermediate March futures were up 4.2% to $89.21.  Even gold began to pick up, with Comex February gold spiking in tandem with oil, up 1.7% on January 28 to $1,341.20.

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