Pollsters botch key races as turnout models over-count Democrats

Pollsters on Tuesday avoided their disastrous 2016 election forecasts by correctly predicting that Democrats would regain control of the House, though botching some important statewide races.

Unlike 2016, when political gurus at The New York Times, The Washington Post and other media said President Trump had little or no chance of winning, surveyors this time captured voting in blue-state congressional districts where a number of Republican seats flipped.

But pollsters did not fully redeem themselves for the sins of 2016 when they collectively botched Trump wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There were glaring survey errors in 2018 as turnout models over-counted Democrats. By Tuesday night, Republicans had won important Senate and governor races...

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