Can Bob Culver run the table on Rick Pollitt?

Billiards fans will know that this asks if Mr. Culver will be elected as the next Wicomico County Executive this fall in what is one of the most important contests, another being that for circuit court judge . Consider his "hypothetical" victory based upon the vote that he and Mr. Pollitt received in his respective party primary:

Pollitt (Democrat) - 3,361

Culver (Republican) - 3,841

Now, if that were the general election vote, it would put Mr. Culver in that big office on the third floor of the Government Office Building. Although the primary vote differential is encouraging, let’s consider Pollitt's past performance at the polls.

In 2006, when he was the only significant candidate, Pollitt received 4,789 primary votes, 77% of the Democrat total, then trounced by more than 3,000 votes Ronald Alessi, who was the only serious Republican candidate and won its primary with only 2,308 votes, 39% of those cast. That election is almost meaningless, but not so the one in 2010, when he won the Democrat primary with 3,734 votes, or 69% of those cast. His opponent in the general election, Joe Ollinger, had received more votes – 4,229 – In the Republican primary, but in the general election Pollitt managed to turn the table, winning by less than 1,000 votes (15,022 to 14,110), due in large part to Mr. Ollinger's lackluster campaign.

If this year is a repeat of 2010, when Pollitt played the comeback kid role after the primary, the result will be similar. But there are factors that may prevent that from happening. As noted, in 2010 Pollitt had the benefit of an opponent who either could not or would not conduct an aggressive campaign of the kind necessary to win. Bob Culver cannot repeat that episode if he expects to win. Whether he follows in Ollinger's wake remains to be seen.

Then, there's numerology. In each successive primary Mr. Pollitt has received fewer votes than in the preceding one. And his margin of victory in the general election has decreased -- another sure sign of less affection among the County residents who vote. His narrow win in 2010 shows that a respectable Republican can come close to defeating Pollitt without trying hard to do so. It’s a shame that Joe Ollinger did not conduct a broader campaign rather than simply presenting himself as a successful conservative businessman who wanted to be the one who appointed the school board.

And of even greater significance, in the primaries in both 2006 and 2007 the total Democrat vote for the County Exec candidates exceeded the Republican numbers. Not so this year, when there were no other candidates that Culver and Pollitt.

Now is the time for Mr. Culver to let voters know who he is and how he will be different than Pollitt. And it’s time for those who want him to displace Pollitt to support Bob’s campaign with a contribution. This year the outcome in November could turn on campaign finances and spending.