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Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Iran May Retaliate For Apparent Cyber Attack

Iran has limited capacity to retaliate in kind to an apparent cyber attack that infected computers at its sole nuclear power plant, analysts say, but some worry it could seek to hit back by other means.

Security experts say they believe the release of the Stuxnet computer worm may have been a state-backed attack on Iran's nuclear program, most likely originating in the United States or Israel. But they say the truth may never be known.

Little information is available on how much damage, if any, Iran's nuclear and wider infrastructure has suffered from Stuxnet -- and Tehran will probably never share the full details. Officials said on Sunday the worm had hit staff computers at the Bushehr nuclear power plant but had not affected major systems there.

Some analysts believe Iran may be suffering wider sabotage aimed at slowing down its nuclear ambitions, and point to unexplained technical problems that have cut the number of working centrifuges in its uranium enrichment programme.

In the short term, intelligence experts believe Tehran's priority will be trying to identify the source of the attack and examining how the worm was uploaded onto its systems. "The Iranian internal security and counterintelligence departments will need to nail down the culprits first, then work out how to turn the tables," said Fred Burton, a former U.S. counterintelligence expert who is now vice president of political risk consultancy Stratfor.

But finding reliable evidence identifying which country or group was responsible might well prove impossible, increasing the probability of a more unofficial and deniable reaction.
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