With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.
How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.
We'll dip into what the model says in a moment, but first a note about models in general: there are a lot of them, from complex equations generated by nerdy academics (like the team at The Signal) to funny coincidences like the Redskins Rule, which holds that the incumbent party keeps the White House if Washington's football team wins its last home game. (This is true in 17 of the last 18 elections!) Every year, some of these models are right and some are wrong, and the difference is often just luck. As a result, models get a bad rap as being very good at predicting the past and lousy at predicting the future.
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14 comments:
God help us all if he is re-elected!!!!! I did not vote him in and I will vote his ass out!!!!
He is such a disgrace!
I predicted this long ago and, I think, wrote it on this blog. If the Republicans could have united early upon one candidate--my choice was Romney--then they could easily have taken Obama down. But all of the squabbling among the candidates did them in. The election now appears to be Obama's for the taking. Can you imagine four more years of him? If he does get re-elected, he can thank the Republican party.
Sad but true. Our once great Republican Party has been hijacked by lunatics.
I think some liberals have got into the republican party and succeeding to destroy it.
i'm trying to catch my breath. it can't happen. we must believe and work as if we have a chance to change this admin.
don't become to negative that you give up. this is what the opposition whould like. get busy.
It certainly looks our Failure in Chief will be reelected by voters who receive entitlements , this will result in more businesses closing their doors due to Obamas business killing agenda. Dumbocrats please enjoy the upcoming layoffs they are on the way
It's not the liberals I'm afraid 10:56, it's the lunatics. The intolerants, fundamentalists, neocons, skinheads, rednecks, teabaggers, inbreds, morons, trailer trash, etc, etc, etc.
11:28 You and ones like you are the true dangers to this once great Republic. If your not a communist then you are a fool to follow the democratic parties lead.
The biggest danger if Obama is re-elected is his appointment of one or more Supreme COurt Justices. It is already speculated his replacement for Ginsburg is Kamala Harris, read about her and her husbands ties to foreign money laundering into Obamas campaign if you need to be even more scared about the future.
Our economy will not survive another 4 years with this ahole in office.Companies are still laying off workers and nothing is getting any better. Is it true that he has given China all the work for our bridges and infrastructures. What to pay off all the money he has given out one third of all citizens are working two thirds are getting checks what a loser!!
Spare me the drama 1:23. Actually alot has gotten better, just ask anyone invested in the stock market that has a clue. Unemployment is steadyly improving and our economy is on the mend. You are living in fantasy land and eating up all the crap sandwiches Fox News and hate radio can serve you. Oh yea and that BS reagarding China, try fact check once in a while. All in all you and all your inbred moronic buddies should just STFU and thank President Obama for all the good he has done and for SAVING this country's economy and economic future.
Mexicans blacks and whale saving hippies are the reason he was elected in the first place and the reason hell be elected again.they refuse to close borders so the American idea can die with the flood of Mexicans that come in and scream equality. They are not equally.they come here and vote for a black man because he is different like them.
The blacks well we all know most voted for Obama and never voted before.its no secret they got there brothers back.
And these hippie green peace bums....they don't mind living in tents as we can see with the occupy movement.
Truth is this country hasn't been ran well since Reagan. Hardly no immigration issues.only sincere blacks that were truly political voted not the crack dealers that had their boys back.and hippies had all relocated to Canada.
America needs to go back to the times of old.of course there were still government problems but nothing of the sort of today's problems.Americans need to look at how the country was when it was running smooth.now look at it. What's the difference between now and then.figure it out and eliminate it.
look where change has got us.time to change back!
Practice what you preach.look up the unemployment rates.fact is its only improved because people have exhausted their bennifits. And economic future? What future?
Oh you must have been hired for Obama's truth team.how does it feel to be in a round room looking for a corner to piss in? You'll find no one to agree with you here!
2:47 you must have your head up Kieth Obermans ass!!
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