Sure, there’s “Dewey Beats Truman” risk in this prediction. But consider the data discussed below, together with the much greater Republican motivation and energy shift away from all Democrat candidates now that the Obama bubble has burst and O’Malley has revealed himself as the wrong person for the job. I’ll take that risk, with the exception of a few races in which an incumbent Democrat is probably unbeatable.
In the Lower Shore the Democratic majority in registration has vanished during the past decade. In 2000 it was were over 50% in all three counties: Somerset – 60%; Wicomico – 51%; Worcester – 51%. By 2008, the height of the Obama bubble, things were much different: Somerset – 57%; Wicomico - 47%; Worcester - 45%. Since then the numbers have not changed greatly, but precise data is not readily available. To be sure, much of the Democrat decline is due to increase in registered “independent” voters.
The shift in political sentiment on the Lower Shore in recent years can be seen in the margin by which Bob Ehrlich carried those counties in 2002, when (statewide) he beat the worst Democrat candidate in recent memory, “KKT”, and 2006, when (statewide) he was beaten by O’Malley. Although he lost his statewide margin and the margin by which he carried most counties where he won in both years was reduced, in two -- Wicomico and Worcester -- his margin in 2006 was greater than in 2002.
In the local and state legislative races, in which there are no credible independent or libertarian candidates, most of the registered independent voters are likely to vote Republican, not to mention the Democrat crossover voters, many of whom will relish the chance to take another shot at O’Malley. These factors will compound the Republican surge that we have already seen in the primary turnout this year – in Wicomico County, there were more Republican than Democrat voters.
Against that background this is how we see some local races:
Charles Otto is a likely winner over McCready by a small margin as Somerset remains the most Democrat of the Lower Shore counties, but the Wicomico voters make the difference.
Michael James will beat James Mathias by a hair for the seat now held by Lowell Stoltzfus.
Norman Conway (a respected Democrat) and Michael McDermott will win in their district.
Rudolph Cane will beat Dustin Mills in their district, where the Democrat majority continues.
Rich Colburn remains unbeatable – some things never change.
In the contested Wicomico County Council races, Stevie Prettyman will win, probably by a mile, and the at-large seats will go Republican (Culver and Holloway) by a comfortable margin over Democrats candidates who want to repeal the tax revenue cap in Wicomico County (Cowall and Taylor). Bob Caldwell will nose out David MacLeod. The only Democrat winner could be Sheree Sample-Hughes, who has a safe district due to the registration advantage there.
The Wicomico County Exec. contest is too bizarre to call at this point, but there is growing “I’m sick of Rick” sentiment. Ollinger, despite his non-existent campaign to date, got more votes (4,853) in the primary than Pollitt (3,621), who faced two opponents. The votes for his opponents (1,803) were mostly cast due to disfavor with Pollitt and could result in Ollinger’s victory if those voters turn out in November. And Ollinger could run a more aggressive campaign in the next month or so – he’s putting up some road signs and having a fund raiser this week that could yield big bucks. Pollitt’s role as O’Malley’s campaign guru in Wicomico County could be a decisive factor (along with that land he wanted the County to buy for $18,000 per acre and his whining about the tax revenue cap, etc.).
Turnout by disappointed Democrat voters could also be decisive in deciding who will become the next State’s Attorney in Wicomico County. Matt Maciarello is actively wooing the supporters of Davis Ruark, many of whom regard Seth Mitchell to be an opportunist mud-slinger. This one could become the gunfight of the 2010 election in Wicomico County.
We are not familiar with the dynamics of the local races in Somerset County and Worcester County, other state legislative races and the Kratovil-Harris race for the 1st Congressional District to make a prediction about them. Those who are qualified to make a meaningful analysis and prediction about any of them are invited to opine.
[primary vote numbers above do not include some absentee and provisional ballots].
23 comments:
No doubt there is a "I'm sick of Rick Pollitt" but let me assure everyone, the alternative is much worse. Having known Ollinger for some 15 years, he is not the man for the job. Just ask anyone who has had first hand experience, either serving on committees or working for him personally, they will have stories to share. Rick likely is not the one to run this county but Ollinger is absolutely the worst one to consider. Please try to learn all you can about Ollinger.
Pollitt has already played the "negative campaign" card on Ollinger, so he must be worried about the effect of his record these past 4 years, and has good reason to be.
I'm sick of Rick, too.
Here's a good bumper sticker --
HEY WICOMICO:
SICK OF RICK?
Good info & analysis -- I agree.
The County Executive race is wide open, and Pollitt has a lot of baggage, including $23 pens, $400 trash cans and Jim Fineran.
"Rudy" Cane is a fiasco.
Based on some of the great candidates that didn't make it through the primary - I'm not sure just how smart the voters are.
Those who think someone has it "in the bag" and just don't bother to vote or who are just plain apathetic can wield more power than the voter sometimes.
The "silent" majority of non-voters can really affect the outcome.
Why does Rick keep telling everyone that he will go back to Fruitland if he loses? We don't want him. He's done enough damage.
11:50...I agree that Pollitt is vulnerable but if the three issues you mentioned,Fineran is the only one that Pollitt is responsible for and also the only one that is of any real consequence.
The problem with Pollitt's administration is that it has been completely REACTIVE as opposed to PROACTIVE.The county was clearly in fiscal crisis when Pollitt took affice and there was widespread mistrust of government. Almost 4 years later,what actions of any consequence has this administration taken that were not totally forced upon them????
NONE....apparently the county was just fine and no changes were needed in Pollit's mind.
The consequence of another 4 years of totally reactive , myopic governance is something the citizens of this county cannot afford.
We need an EXECUTIVE...not an administrator.
Pretty good assessment of the races.With regard to the Governor's race, we all know that it is decided in the Baltimore and Washington metro area...areas that do not bode well for Erlich.
I am a democrat, but if republicans can create jobs, i am voting a straight republican ticket.
I have had enough of change.
I think Dustin Mills is a viable candidate. He will need good turnout though.
also in breaking news ... water is wet
Pollitt's "baggage" also includes Ted Shea who now makes about $125,000 per year to do what Pollitt is being paid to do. Rick said he would only keep Shea on the payroll until he got his feet wet -- that was 4 years ago.
1:42
More breaking news.
Due to high water levels in baltimore the tunnel on I95 is now underwater.
Been watching Pollitt for awhile, especially this year. He is in complete denial about his role in our government. This year(an election year) he is constantly blaming everything on that fact.
Rick, it's not politics and it's not because it's an election year. It's because you haven't been paying attention to the job you were elected to do and you have just been letting the same old, same old people run our government. And, Rick, this isn't the first time you have heard this, so don't try and spin it and make it about politics. Please do you job for us, we the people.
1:23 - If Republicans were going to create jobs, they would have already done it and be doing it.
I can't believe you posted that comment.
ALL elected officials should ALREADY be doing their job but sadly they are NOT.
Until we start manufacturing again in this country, there won't be hundreds and thousands of jobs to be had, so don't listen to ANY candidate who "promises" they're going to create jobs.
Where and how are they going to create them?
Think about it!
Joe:
How about an hour long Ollinger-Pollitt debate on SBYNEWS, with you as the moderator?
Just like everyone thought Castle had the seat in the bag?
I wouldn't count on this because as it's been shown, anything is possible.
Rick:
Fire Fineran Now (and you'll win big). Otherwise it could be curtains for your career.
Don't sell Dustin short...I like what he has to say and he is working hard...a friend of mine just received a call from his campaign, and as a registered Democrat, he really liked what Dustin had to say!
If Mills loses, it will be a shame. He is clearly the better candidate and would be a much better representative for the district. I've voted for Rudy in the past, but I am definitely voting for Mr. Mills this time around.
Rudy Cane is very arrogant and Dustin you have my vote. I remember Cane before and didn't like what he did then and don't want it now. As for Pollitt, it appears to me he hires people to do his job (costing the taxpayers more money) and then when he has decisions to make he doesn't have the gonads to take a stand! You slapped those guys at the landfill's hand instead of firing ALL of them for instance.
Does anyone know who's brilliant idea it was to close the upper ferry at 5:30 every day? That does not help working people trying to get off work and across. Why not just leave it open later so people can actually use it in the evening and close it on Sunday all together? Mr Pollitt can you have your high price Mr Finneran answer that for us or can you own up to it yourself?
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